College Fantasy Football TE Preview: How to use key stats to identify a true game-changing tight end
Tight ends are the most consistently overlooked players in all of college fantasy football, as an elite, tier-1 producer at the position can create a sizable weekly advantage over your opponents. With a seemingly endless pool of 40-60 target tight ends to sort through, how do we differentiate between the rank-and-file options beyond just a good old-fashioned eyeball test?
Play Yahoo's new College Fantasy Football game: Create or join a league now!
Projecting legacy schools like Iowa, Penn State and Notre Dame, who churn out NFL TEs, is a tried and true method and a great place to start. The next phase of evolution is to play “Follow The Coordinator/HC” based on their historical TE production and chase the pass-heavy TEs who accrued the most targets the previous season.
More CFF Positional Previews
I’ve found metrics such as average target depth, flex rate and wide rate to be particularly helpful when projecting year-over-year growth at the position. When coaches trust a tight end to win in 1-on-1 situations, especially on the boundary, it’s usually indicative of greater receiving utility and schemed touches for the player. Same for ADOT as a predictive measure, since the further downfield a TE is featured, the more confident the coaching staff is with that player’s overall receiving acumen.
Draft strategy
My standard for determining elite TE production is 500 receiving yards and five touchdowns, with anything in the 600+ yard/6 TDs range being rarified air and legitimately game-changing numbers for the position. Achieving elite 500/5 status requires a high-functioning offense that features tight ends to the tune of 50+ targets on average for their TE1.
Tight ends can be potent fantasy assets if they are talented enough to be schemed touches on screens, drags, block and release, Y-option routes, etc. I generally like TEs who receive a 20% +/- target share and are priorities in their team’s weekly game plan. Lower target shares on high volume passing teams like LSU, SMU and Cal are acceptable since they offer an easier path to 50-60 targets.
Top-12 TEs
Targets
Trey’Dez Green, LSU
Green leads all returning tight ends with a 33% wide-alignment rate and drew a 34% red-zone target share. An early injury suppressed his season, but he returned to secure an impressive 13-of-22 contested targets with 6.0 yards after the catch. Simply the most dangerous TE in college football and a threat to score from any alignment.
DJ Vonnahme, Iowa
Vonnahme is Iowa's primary offensive weapon who should expand on his massive 37% target share. His 9.2-yard average depth of target creates more downfield access than a traditional safety-valve TE. Vonnahme is a priority selection after the first three tight ends, particularly for managers seeking consistency and bankable usage.
Luke Reynolds, Virginia Tech
A 74% catch rate and 6.0 yards after the catch average foreshadow the coming breakout campaign for the third-year phenom. Reynolds boasts a tantalizing athletic profile and should assume the kind of prolific receiving involvement we’ve seen from former James Franklin TEs Tyler Warren, Theo Johnson and Pat Freiermuth. He’s the perfect fallback option for drafters who opt to wait until the later rounds to address the tight end position.
Fades
Garrett Oakley, Kansas State
Oakley commanded an elevated 26% target share and 38% red-zone usage rate while scoring six touchdowns, production that would normally create an easy breakout case. However, new Kansas State coach Collin Klein rarely featured tight ends during his A&M tenure, while gifted sophomore TE Lincoln Cure is going to command additional snaps and targets. I don’t recommend carrying a second tight end in Yahoo Standard Leagues with 18 roster spots, and feel like there are better TE1 options available.
Dorian Thomas, Cal
Thomas already had one shot at the Power Four level when he drew a sparse two targets over two seasons at Arizona. Much of his value at New Mexico last year stemmed from the gigantic 84 targets he earned, a number which is implausible given the presence of established starting Cal TE, Mason Mini. I think Thomas ends up being a rotational contributor as opposed to a must-start asset. Leave him for the wire.
Rocky Beers, Oklahoma
A sparsely utilized backup TE who bounced between Air Force and FIU for his first four years, Beers transfers over from a dismal 2-10 Colorado State team where he was the lone viable offensive weapon for a lame duck coaching regime. A sixth-year journeyman who now enters a SEC caliber TE room for an OU program that plays one of the five toughest schedules in the country, leave Beers for someone else.
Top Sleeper
Willie Rodriguez, Kentucky
Rodriguez has the most aggressive route profile among returning tight ends with at least 20 targets, posting an 11.2-yard average target depth. He flexed out on 63% of snaps and ranked third among Power Four returners in wide rate at 8.7%, showing the previous staff wasn’t afraid to single him up on the boundary. New Kentucky coach Will Stein arrives from Oregon, where he consistently featured tight ends, and pass-heavy game scripts should work in Rodriguez’s favor for a retooling UK squad that will be chasing most of the time.
