Fantasy Football: Malik Nabers will look to bounce back after ACL tear — here's what history tells us about what to expect

With Malik Nabers coming off an ACL and meniscus tear from 2025, should you take the risk and buy the injury dip? Analyst Joel Smyth goes over the history of WRs returning from ACL tears and best practices on drafting the dynamic young wideout. 

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Nabers tore his ACL in Week 4, over 10 months ago, and has recently received great news of him avoiding the PUP list for training camp. Nabers is currently going as WR16 in Yahoo ADP, with the potential to rise with more positive news throughout the month. 

Over the last decade in fantasy football, we've seen 14 notable receivers return from serious knee injuries, often with a dip in play. Of the 14, the results are as follows: one WR increased in fantasy PPG, one was the exact same and 12 decreased. It's scary to look at, but let's break it down with more context.

Of those 14 WRs, the players' fantasy PPG on average dipped in the following season by 20%. Nabers, however, is not your average receiver. I don't say that based on the fact that he has superstar potential, but that he is a supreme athlete and only 23 years old. Many of the other cases, especially the worst outcomes, come from older veterans that failed to ever fully bounce back. He also benefits from it being an early season ACL tear, although it was more difficult than a standard tear to return from.

If Nabers were to drop by 20%, it would move him from the fantasy WR8 in half-PPR as a rookie, to a mid-level fantasy WR2. His ADP lines up closer to that outcome, with the bullish stance that since it was such an early tear, he could be fully healthy 10 months after his original surgery, setting him up closer to a WR1 fantasy year. 

When adding in the meniscus tear, knee injury recovery time can increase by up to three months. A second surgery was required to clean up scar tissue, and we do not know exactly when it took place as Nabers revealed the original reporting was inaccurate. 

A lot has changed from his rookie season — the QB, the coaching staff and the target competition, but here are three pieces of advice on drafting Nabers that is specifically related to his ADP:

1. 8-team leagues > 14-team leagues

Off the ACL injury, Nabers is an upside pick that should be best in the second half of the season. Because of that, he's a much better pick in smaller leagues, where rosters are riddled with fantasy talent and shooting for upside is less risky. In larger 14-team leagues, I'll pass, as a slow start on a thin roster can crush the first month of your season. 

2. Limit risk elsewhere

"What about a 10-team league?" If it's right in the middle, I'd implore you to limit risk elsewhere. If Nabers takes a month to ramp up, you don't also want a month of Jeremiyah Love ramping up, or George Kittle, or Tucker Kraft, etc. If you're drafting a starter that may not be 100% early, I would try to not have any other fantasy starters that are rookies or returning from injury. 

3. Use Yahoo 7-Day ADP

News is happening fast, and average draft position can't keep up. Since the outlook on Nabers can look drastically different a month from now, use recent ADP to best understand where he is actually being drafted. If the news is more bearish on his early playing time, his ADP may be WR17 over the last week, but still show as WR14 from the entire offseason, and vice versa.