Fantasy Football: Using player projections to identify the best and worst ADPs on Yahoo, plus where to draft each position in 2026
Anyone spending time to do fantasy football player projections has my respect, and we should take value in what they say, especially if we take a consensus of the top projectors. At Yahoo Fantasy, we have consensus projections from our Fantasy Plus parters, and today I’ll be comparing the projections from them and other top-tier projectors to find the best and worst ADPs on Yahoo.
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Of course, we aren’t only drafting off of the best median projections in a game about ranges of outcomes, but this will give us a good baseline to work from in terms of the best times to draft each position. And for the nerds who care, I’m using QB15, TE15, RB36 and WR40 as the “replacement” for this half-PPR data. That should account for leagues with flex spots and makes the data lean slightly more towards the flex-eligible positions, which seems sharp.
Projections vs. Yahoo ADP
The major takeaways from the chart are QBs are too expensive and the early round RBs are still projecting well.
RB Targets & Fades
To nobody’s surprise, Jahmyr Gibbs is by far the most valuable projected player over replacement, to the point that the combination of the 12th and 13th player only matches his score. In other words, if you pick your draft slot this year, it’s 1.01.
The best RB values are Breece Hall (36th ADP vs. 22nd projected overall), Javonte Williams (34th vs. 24th), Jaylen Warren (73rd vs. 57th), Tony Pollard (85th vs. 67th), Travis Etienne Jr. (41st vs. 32nd) and Cam Skattebo (40th vs. 31st). Ironically, the traditional “RB Dead Zone” is showing value in general. In fact, every RB in Yahoo ADP ranging from RB15 to RB25 is being drafted after their projected finish in fantasy points over replacement. There is real risk of their role shrinking, so this is how it should be, but we can’t really double count that risk either, especially in standard and half-PPR leagues.
The worst RB values are Chuba Hubbard (67th ADP vs. 95th projected overall), RJ Harvey (90th ADP vs. 115+) and Blake Corum (95th vs. 115+). Hubbard’s ADP needs to drop with Jonathon Brooks being healthy to start training camp, while Harvey and Corum are high-upside backups priced more aggressively than others with contingent upside. At the same time, the early-round RBs who are showing extremely minimal negative value are Kyren Williams (28th ADP vs. 29th projected overall), Omarion Hampton (17th vs. 18th) and Jadarian Price (63rd vs. 66th).
Advice: Have three RBs by the Jaylen Warren/Tony Pollard range.
WR Targets & Fades
The first thing to note is the default settings on Yahoo are two WRs, which would completely change the calculus of this exercise. I believe many of you are in leagues with three WRs and a flex, so I made the cutoff WR48. If the cutoff was closer to WR36 in these default leagues, then every receiver would drop in the overall rankings today. Keep that in mind.
In general, WRs have the most inconsistent ADPs vs. projections. There are pockets where there are both great and terrible picks at ADP based on projections, so figuring out why the projections love Xavier Worthy and don’t like Marvin Harrison Jr. or Brian Thomas Jr. would be interesting to dig into later on.
But the best WR values in the early rounds are Rashee Rice (31st ADP vs. 20th projected overall), Terry McLaurin (55th vs. 38th), Jameson Williams (60th vs. 45th), Alec Pierce (78th vs. 54th) and Christian Watson (68th vs. 56th). There aren’t any bad values amongst receivers in the first two rounds, so this is the true target list after drafting best player available early.
The “sleepers” per these projections are Josh Downs (121st vs. 81st), Xavier Worthy (133rd vs. 88th), Wan’Dale Robinson (147th vs. 98th), Matthew Golden (151st vs. 108th), Khalil Shakir (167th vs. 110th), Romeo Doubs, Jalen Coker, Jayden Higgins and KC Concepcion. Some of these players are even better as full-PPR scammers.
The worst values are the middle-round WRs, and I have to say that I do disagree with a couple of them. By fantasy points over replacement, DeVonta Smith (27th ADP vs. 37th projected overall), Tee Higgins (32nd vs. 41st), Harrison (77th vs. 85th) and BTJ (82nd vs. 90th) are the worst picks. The incoming rookies are also projected as slight losses, though it’s not to the point that they are actually mispriced when accounting for their ceilings. They are Carnell Tate (75th vs. 79th), Jordyn Tyson (88th vs. 94th) and Makai Lemon (98th vs. 102nd).
Advice: Don’t go too overweight on WRs early, as there are nice values after 50th overall. I like having exactly two WRs through five or six rounds this year, especially in 2-WR leagues.
QB Targets & Fades
In general, QBs are being drafted far too early on Yahoo, at least compared to this fantasy points over replacement calculation. And this is only half PPR, where the collective ranking for QBs would drop even further in full PPR. None of the QBs are being drafted after their expected finish in overall fantasy points over replacement. Zero for 15. Not great.
The QBs who are closest to their finish are Jayden Daniels (52nd ADP vs. 59th projected overall), Jalen Hurts (56th vs. 62nd), Brock Purdy (99th vs. 100th), Bo Nix (104th vs. 106th) and Matthew Stafford (101st vs. 109th). That largely matches with my favorite targets, even before seeing this data. I’d also note Kyler Murray (109th ADP), Jared Goff (116th), Jordan Love (132nd) and Baker Mayfield (138th) are within 18 projected points as the QB15, so they are also nice values.
The worst values are Justin Herbert (66th ADP vs. 105th projected overall), Joe Burrow (42nd vs. 75th) and Caleb Williams (71st vs. 97th). All of them have multiple stacking partners ahead of them, which could be driving their ADPs up. A simple rule would be to only consider those QBs at cost if you have their top receivers, and even then, it may not be smart.
Advice: Fifth-round Jayden Daniels or Jalen Hurts, or grab two QBs after 100th overall.
TE Targets & Fades
In general, TEs are being drafted near their projected finishes in fantasy points over replacement, though the TE1/2 border provides slightly more value.
The top target is Mark Andrews (115th ADP vs. 78th projected overall), who faces the worst target competition of the decade with his backup TEs out of the way and WR2 up for grabs. He’s unlikely to be the same yards-after-catch option, but if Lamar Jackson returns to an MVP-level, then Andrews can just run pure with TDs to overcome that.
The worst values are Tucker Kraft (59th ADP vs. 70th projected overall) and Trey McBride (24th vs. 30th), who are both elite players on tape but face some red flags with injury or environment. I have Kraft as a negative regression candidate in Yahoo Plus, too.
Advice: Scoop up a TE who is falling after ADP or aligns with a QB stack. Values are fair.
