NFL offseason power rankings: No. 6 Detroit Lions need to prove that the Super Bowl window remains open
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Dan Campbell wasn't happy with the Detroit Lions' 2025-26 season, nor should he have been.
He said the Lions underachieved. That's hard to argue after a 9-8 record and no playoff berth. He gave himself "a freaking F" for the job he did last season.
"But I really don't believe we're that far off," Campbell said. "There's a couple of things we can do, and I just want to make sure we go after it. I'm not saying we weren't hungry, but let's get that hunger back, and we're going to bring in some guys to compete."
After a season like the Lions just had, nobody wants to hear how they were actually better than their disappointing record. But they were.
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The Lions were third in DVOA and were one of two teams in the top 10 in offense, defense and special teams. The other was the Super Bowl champion Seahawks. The Lions were done in by a 2-5 record in games decided by seven points or fewer, and perhaps they were unaccustomed to being one of the NFL's targets and getting every opponent's best shot. (It's not like the Lions are used to being front-runners.) That's why Campbell talked about getting the hunger back.
The fear for the Lions is that a rough collapse in the NFC championship game against the 49ers three seasons ago and a 15-2 season that led to a one-and-done playoff exit the following year would be the extent of their Super Bowl window. We'll find out this season.
The talent is still strong. Not many teams have more top-end superstars on the roster. Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, Jack Campbell and Aidan Hutchinson are among the best at their positions in the NFL, and other stars such as Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and Brian Branch filled out the core of a 15-win team two seasons ago. Everything Dan Campbell said after last season was true. It was an underachieving season, but the Lions really don't feel far off.
Last season brought plenty of adversity. The Lions didn't adjust well to the losses of coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn. Losing Johnson particularly hurt, and the team replaced last season's coordinator John Morton with former Cardinals coordinator Drew Petzing. There were also injuries to overcome. Center Frank Ragnow's surprise retirement after seven seasons ended up being a huge blow.
And maybe the Lions needed a season like that. They're back to being a bit of an underdog, a role Campbell seems to enjoy. They do so with a roster that has as many blue-chip players as any and a fourth-place schedule that is now projected to be the easiest in the NFL, via Sharp Football Analytics.
One down season shouldn't knock the Lions off the tier of Super Bowl contenders. But they'll need to prove that last season was an aberration.
Offseason grade
The biggest move of the Lions' offseason wasn't a pleasant one. Cornerback Terrion Arnold, a 2024 first-round pick, was cut after being charged with multiple felonies stemming from an alleged robbery and kidnapping that happened in February. That was an unexpected loss, and it leaves the Lions thin at cornerback.
Arnold wasn't the only loss. The team traded David Montgomery, a big part of the Lions' two-headed attack at running back, and replaced him with Isiah Pacheco. That's a downgrade, though the Lions saved money and got some valuable picks from the Texans for Montgomery. Linebacker Alex Anzalone, cornerback Amik Robertson, run-stopping defensive tackle D.J. Reader and fellow defensive linemen Roy Lopez and Al-Quadin Muhammad also left in free agency.
The Lions worked on the offensive line in the offseason, signing center Cade Mays and tackle Larry Borom and getting Juice Scruggs in the Montgomery trade while using their first-round pick on tackle Blake Miller. With longtime left tackle Taylor Decker cut, Miller is expected to step in at right tackle, with Penei Sewell moving to left tackle. It's a risky plan, but at least the Lions addressed the situation. They're hoping some cheaper help on defense — cornerback Rock Ya-Sin, edge D.J. Wonnum and edge Derrick Moore — help offset some of the losses on that side of the ball. We could look back at the offseason and realize the Lions should've been focused more on their defense. The stunning loss of Arnold might exacerbate those issues.
Grade: C-
Quarterback report
Jared Goff will be on his third coordinator in three seasons. Ben Johnson was a star play-caller, and the Lions moved on from John Morton after a lackluster season. In comes Drew Petzing, who was previously the Cardinals' coordinator. Petzing guided three Cardinals offenses, and none finished higher than 11th in total yards, but he had nowhere near the personnel that he'll have in Detroit. Still, it's a gamble by Dan Campbell that Petzing's lack of results were due to the players he was working with and a better roster will make a big difference.
Goff still put up good numbers despite Campbell having to take over calling plays in the middle of the season. He had 4,564 yards and 34 touchdowns, which wasn't far off his 2024 marks. If Goff vibes well with Petzing, there's no reason he can't again be one of the most productive quarterbacks in the NFL.
"There will be growing pains, there always is," Goff said about Petzing, via SI.com. "But up to this point, it's been really, really good. I've had a lot of fun working with him."
Odds breakdown
From Yahoo's Ben Fawkes: "There's no doubt that last season's 9-8 record — and last-place finish in the NFC North — was disappointing for an ascending Lions team that expects to be in the NFC championship mix. The good news is that it means a very good Detroit team has the league's easiest schedule by opposing season win totals. Yes, there are offensive line and injury concerns (Kerby Joseph, Brian Branch chief among them), but I think people have forgotten how potent this Lions squad can be. Detroit has a win total of 10.5 and is favored in 14 of its first 15 games."
Yahoo's fantasy take
From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "Amon-Ra St. Brown is no secret, with four straight Pro Bowl trips and a juicy 8.8 ADP in Yahoo. But it's still possible that he's slightly underrated. The Sun God's average season the last three years is a ridiculous 117-1393-12, and remember first-round profiles are mixtures of floor and upside. St. Brown is also tied to a stable quarterback, and he's taking aim at an indoor-heavy schedule. If you prefer to select St. Brown over mid-round picks like Christian McCaffrey or Jaxon Smith-Njigba, I won't say you're wrong."
Stat to remember
The Lions' defense ranked ninth in DVOA, but that was the most friendly ranking. In other categories, they were 15th in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play and 11th in success rate allowed per play, and in traditional stats, they were 22nd in points allowed and 18th in yardage allowed. They also were 19th in passer rating allowed. The eye test also works against the Lions; they rarely looked like a top-10 defense last season.
And the defense could be problematic this season. The secondary has three positions of concern. The Lions cut cornerback Terrion Arnold on June 29, well after they could come up with a decent replacement plan. Brian Branch, one of the best safeties in the NFL, tore his Achilles in Week 14. Fellow safety Kerby Joseph has a knee injury. There's no definitive timetable on when either will return, and there are questions about whether either will rebound to previous form.
Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson is a superstar, and linebacker Jack Campbell finished second among linebackers in Pro Football Focus' grades last season, but the rest of Detroit's front seven doesn't have many true impact players. It's fair to wonder if the Lions have enough on defense to return to anything close to their 2024 heights.
Burning question: Do the Lions have the best running back and receiver in the NFL?
If you play fantasy football, you'll notice in your draft that Jahmyr Gibbs is probably going with the first overall pick and Amon-Ra St. Brown is being taken well before the end of the first round. Fantasy success doesn't always equate to real-life success, but in this case, it's a pretty good match.
St. Brown has a tough argument as the WR1 in the NFL because Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nakua, Justin Jefferson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba exist, too. But his consistency is remarkable. Starting with St. Brown's second season, which was 2022, he has had at least 106 catches and 1,161 yards each season and double-digit touchdowns in each of the past three seasons. At age 26, he's as bankable of an asset as there is in the NFL.
Gibbs has competition as the best running back in the NFL, too, but his explosiveness and production gives him a great case as No. 1. He has 1,929 and 1,839 yards from scrimmage over the past two seasons, with 38 total touchdowns, and that was with David Montgomery taking 403 touches. Montgomery is gone this season, and while the Lions won't run Gibbs into the ground, it's fair to expect an uptick in workload.
Wherever they rank, the Lions have two of the top playmakers in the NFL. With dangerous secondary pieces such as Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, the offense will continue to be among the league's best, no matter who is coordinating it.
Best-case scenario
The Lions are one season removed from being one of nine 15-win teams in NFL history. There have been changes since then, but many of the key elements remain. And if you buy into DVOA, the 9-8 Lions were much better than their record last season. NFL fans and observers move on fast; one bad season can allow people to dismiss a team or player that previously built a good track record.
Realistically, though, the Lions have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, they have the easiest schedule in the league, and they're coming off an unlucky season. This is one of the easiest bounce-back picks in the NFL, and while 15-2 is unlikely to happen again, Detroit might not be far off that. The offense could be better with Petzing taking over coordinator duties, and the defense should be good enough to support it. Lions fans have been waiting their whole lives for a Super Bowl trip. It could happen this season.
Nightmare scenario
The 1985 Bears should've been the start of a dynasty. Then defensive coordinator Buddy Ryan left to be a head coach, and we found out how important he was to Chicago's success. Also, those Bears teams reminded us that nothing is guaranteed to last long in the NFL. We could look back and realize Ben Johnson was a major driver of the Lions' success in 2023 and '24, and after he left, the Lions were knocked off the championship contender tier and never returned.
The defensive success also seems perilous, given the release of cornerback Terrion Arnold and safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph working back from injuries. The Lions lost their grip on the NFC North, which was won by Johnson's Bears last season, and maybe we find out this season that they aren't getting it back. It would be heartbreaking for Lions fans to realize their peak has already passed. At least the Bears of the 1980s got that one Super Bowl title.
The crystal ball says
I'm giving the Lions a pass for last season. They had major changes at the coordinator spots and didn't handle it well, and their season had some unlucky turns. It's still a stellar collection of talent, and I assume the offense will be better under Petzing's watch. The defense is a little worrisome, especially with the questions in the secondary.
Putting the Lions this high after they missed the playoffs last season is a bet on not only a talented roster but also Dan Campbell. What happened last season will tap into his motivational skills. Detroit will bounce back and win the NFC North. The Lions will fall short of a Super Bowl trip, but at least they'll renew hope that a championship for this group is possible.
