WNBA betting, odds: 2 futures wagers to make, including the New York Liberty to win the WNBA title
The WNBA All-Star break is here, and while the festivities in Chicago dominate social media, I am looking to the futures market to pick out a few high value bets going into the second half of the season.
The two key things to evaluate at this break are the looming trade deadline and finding buyers to back and sellers to fade, along with how players recovering from injuries may have different news next week then we currently price in now.
These are two wagers I think are worth attacking right now in the market.
New York Liberty to win WNBA title (+650)
The Liberty have underperformed through their first 27 games this season.
This team had the highest preseason win total and shortest future odds, but currently sits seventh in the standings with a record of just 15-12. However, their early season woes are primarily due to a stockpile of injuries that seem to be clearing up. I think the All Star break came at the perfect time for this team, and you will never find a better time to back them for the rest of the season.
Jonquel Jones had offseason surgery and came in rusty; Sabrina Ionescu has missed time with foot and back issues; Satou Sabally was a marquee signing this offseason, but missed time to start the season with a cyst and is currently with a concussion. Finally, key role players in Leonie Fiebich and Marine Johannes are still both currently dealing with left foot/ankle injuries.
Coach Chris DeMarco dropped good news on Sabally and Fiebich going into the break, saying both are progressing and expected back soon. Ionescu and Jones have both stated they finally feel great. If this team returns to full health, it is easily the most talented roster in the WNBA, and the main question will be if they can put the pieces together fast enough. Ionescu, Stewart, Jones and Fiebich have already won a title together, and adding Sabally is a massive upgrade for the fifth starter.
I also expect the Liberty to remain in buyer mode at the Aug. 2 deadline. If talent presents itself on the market, the Liberty won't be scared to pounce and bring in even more star power.
While they project to be a playoff road team, the WNBA changed the schedule to be 1-1-1 for home-court advantage instead of 2-1, and the Liberty will be bigger home favorites and shorter road underdogs than any opponent they may draw. Heck, they may even be favored every game, including the road environments.
Gabby Williams (Golden State) to win Defensive Player of the Year (+110)
This is a simple case of the best defensive player being on the best defensive team.
Williams is always taking the opposing team’s toughest assignment and the Golden State Valkyries lock down defensively with remarkbale consistency. Williams is also incredibly versatile and smart, she can switch on the perimeter, go over against ball screens, guard bigger depending on the assignment and seems to always make the right decision. There have already been multiple instances where in the last few minutes of close games she gets game-sealing steals that lead to layups to ice a Valkyries win.
The other factor here is the field. Natasha Howard is currently second in the running at +250, but she is a candidate I would put the fair odds much lower. Howard has strong advanced analytics, but the Minnesota Lynx just welcomed back Napheesa Collier to the lineup, and she is also one of the best defenders in the league. The credit is going to be divided up among multiple players for the Lynx going forward.
Third is A’ja Wilson of the Aces. Barring injury, she is a lock to win her fifth WNBA MVP. Last season, she took home both MVP and co-Defensive Player of the Year with Alanna Smith. While Wilson’s on/off impact defensively is strong, Las Vegas’ defense overall ranks ninth out of 15 teams in the WNBA. They are a below-average defense, and she is a prime candidate for voter fatigue.
Lastly, the Valkyries might be buyers searching for perimeter offense at the trade deadline, most notably being linked to Los Angeles Sparks All-Star Kelsey Plum. If another offense punch enters the Valkyries rotation, Williams will shine more defensively as she will be tasked with some additional heavy lifting.
While Williams is the current chalk candidate, it should be closer to -150 right now than +110.
