Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs deals continue to show that elite RBs are good values
The pendulum swung too far on devaluing running backs, and some NFL teams figured that out in time to make smart investments.
The NFL went crazy paying wide receivers top dollar, and left running backs behind. That seems to be changing, at least at the top of the running back tier.
Three headline deals were struck this week between teams and their star running backs. Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson signed a three-year, $66.75 million deal with $51.5 million guaranteed, and it could be worth up to $75 million. Then, on Thursday, morning Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor signed a two-year, $44 million extension. Later Thursday, the Lions signed Jahmyr Gibbs to a three-year deal worth $67.5 million, with the ability for Gibbs to earn up to $75.75 million, and it included $51.5 million guaranteed according to ESPN. He's now the highest paid running back in NFL history.
Those are good deals for those running backs. And still, compared to top receivers, they are great values.
The value of top RBs vs. WRs
There was another huge deal among skill-position players signed this week. Zay Flowers signed a four-year, $140 million extension with the Baltimore Ravens. That included $108 million guaranteed.
Flowers is a very good receiver, but at $35 million a season, he's making about 55% more per season than Gibbs at $22.5 million.
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Flowers has 2,388 yards and 10 touchdowns over the last two seasons combined. Gibbs has averaged 1,884 yards from scrimmage and 19 touchdowns the past two seasons. Gibbs did that on many more touches, but everyone has seen him play. He's one of the best big-play threats in the NFL. His talent and ability to affect a game is undeniable.
It's not a knock on Flowers, and receivers clearly have a lot of value in the modern NFL, but it's also hard to believe that Flowers has that much more of an overall impact on games than Gibbs, Robinson or Taylor.
Teams seem to be figuring that out.
Elite running backs getting paid
The argument that running backs don't matter has always been a bit of a straw man. Nobody believes that. But teams did scale back on their investments in running backs, only drafting elite prospects in the top 10 and not paying running backs huge second contracts compared to what other positions make.
Running backs still haven't caught up, when we see what the trio of star backs this week got compared to Flowers, or Alec Pierce's four-year, $114 million deal with the Indianapolis Colts this offseason. But teams are showing that elite running backs are worth paying. Middle-of-the-road running backs might be easier to replace with mid-round draft picks, but superstars like Gibbs, Robinson and Taylor can carry an offense. Their teams know that. And they didn't have to spend much, relatively speaking, to keep those backs around. It's especially important to have those elite backs as the NFL shifts back to multiple tight end sets to attack defenses that were built to take on spread passing attacks.
The Miami Dolphins seemed ahead of the trend. They surprised everyone when they refused to trade De'Von Achane, then signed him to a very reasonable four-year, $64 million extension. At the time that contract would have placed Achane 30th among receivers in terms of average annual value. Gibbs, the highest paid running back ever, would rank 25th among receivers, behind Calvin Ridley, Christian Watson and Courtland Sutton, according to Spotrac.
Given those comparisons, why wouldn't the Lions happily pay Gibbs? Gibbs is going to pile up huge games for them this season. He'll do so at a pretty good price for the team.
