Fantasy Football: 10 bold takes Hayden Winks is making at QB and WR for 2026
For 90% of the offseason, the analysis is calculated. And then we get to have some fun. Today's column is ice cream for dinner, but if I hit on any of these, then I get to brag about it. When I miss on them, nobody is allowed to care. These are the rules. I don't make them up (I do).
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We'll get to the RB and TE version of this column later on, in addition to all of the written content and rankings we have in the Yahoo Ultra Draft Kit.
1. Puka Nacua (WR2 ADP) is 5th WR ever to score 400+ PPR points
It's hard to get off of Jahmyr Gibbs as the 1.01 in half PPR, but Nacua has a case and is definitely in the mix for 1.01 in full PPR. He has the most receptions through a WR's first three seasons in NFL history, and he's also the career leader in receiving yards per game. Last year, he led the NFL in both categories on a per-game basis (8.1 receptions for 107.7 yards).
Already a fantasy football legend, Nacua has a very obvious area to explode further: red-zone TDs. Last year, Davante Adams had a 27% target share in the red zone compared to Nacua's 17%. Adams scored 13 RZ TDs to Nacua's 6. That could change at any point, especially if Adams' hammy acts up. If that gets close to even or flips to Nacua, then we're talking about a ceiling that only Cooper Kupp, Jerry Rice, CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase have ever had in a single season.
2. Malik Nabers (WR15) finishes as a top-10 WR
Nabers dodged PUP list from the get go at training camp, and he's looked really good so far, to the point where he's most likely to play in Week 1. It's possible, even likely, that he's not quite the same player on film, but him being available in September is a win and that gives him plenty of time to get up to speed later in the season when we actually need him. Plus, his ADP is discounting him from his obvious ceiling. The data on that:
As a rookie through Week 4 of last year, Nabers was half-PPR's WR7 on WR1 overall expected points. It's even better than that in full PPR. As a reminder, the Giants were 31st in scoring and 27th in passing yards per game over that stretch. That's how dominant he is versus his teammates and how explosive he can be with quality QB play. Jaxson Dart passes that threshold, and his competition for looks is simply swapping Wan'Dale Robinson for Isaiah Likely.
3. Jaylen Waddle (WR19 ADP) finishes as a top-12 WR
He was the WR12 in 2022 and nearly hit that mark as a rookie (WR18), so this is just a return to normal for Waddle as the top target in a reliable offense. Broncos head coach Sean Payton has 11 seasons as a top-five offense in pass attempts and has finished in the top half of the league in 14-of-21 seasons, including in both seasons with Bo Nix in Denver. Last year without Waddle, the Broncos were fourth in neutral pass rate, eighth in neutral pace and 15th in points per game. They've connected on a league-high amount of screens since 2024, too, despite them being drawn up for lesser talents in WRs Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin, who both have averaged more than 1.0 screen per game over the past two seasons. Waddle's absorbing those now.
4. Emeka Egbuka (WR21 ADP) finishes as a top-13 WR
Egbuka's rookie season will be remembered for his WR9 start through Week 11, and then a rug-pull WR64 finish from Weeks 12-18. There are splits to get to that can explain it.
First, Baker Mayfield suffered an AC Joint sprain to his shoulder in Week 12, and Egbuka's catchable ball rate dropped to 50% from that point forward, which was tied for worst among WRs. It was at 61% in Weeks 1-11. Egbuka also had his own injury. From ESPN's Benjamin Solak: "A Week 6 hamstring injury robbed him of his top speed; NFL Next Gen Stats tracking data had Egbuka with 11 routes of at least 18 miles per hour through the first five weeks of the season ... and 11 such routes in the remaining 12 weeks, after the hamstring injury."
Egbuka's target share also jumped from 18.5% to 28.5% without Mike Evans, and his expected half-PPR points vaulted from 8.9 (WR41) to 12.5 (WR12). Evans being in San Francisco for this season and Chris Godwin Jr. getting another year older could really allow Egbuka to shine.
New Bucs OC Zac Robinson comes from the Rams, where he turned the Z-receiver spot into record-breaking production with Cooper Kupp. Robinson said this about Egbuka: "He's very similar to a Cooper Kupp just in terms of the way that his brain works with the game of football and natural instincts."
In 2022, 19% of Kupp's receptions were screens and he had a lot more quick-design receptions on top of that, while largely avoiding press man coverage. None of that happened with Egbuka last season when he was forced onto the line of scrimmage in a downfield role. I think he can do it now.
5. Rome Odunze (WR28 ADP) finishes as a top-20 WR
A mid-season injury, untimely drops and too many missed throws by Caleb Williams hide some really nice underlying volume numbers for Odunze. He was the WR18 in per-game usage and the WR22 in targets per game (7.1), while competing with current Buffalo Bill DJ Moore. It'd be a surprise if those volume numbers weren't in the same ballpark in his third NFL season, even if Colston Loveland (dawg) and Luther Burden III are also emerging.
There just needs to be more chemistry between Odunze and Williams to pay off. Their zone feel has been horrific so far, though it's something I'm sure coach Ben Johnson is making a priority. Odunze simply has to catch the ball in traffic and near the sideline better, and Williams has to make the layup throws more often. Does that seem that far-fetched? Not to me. Young talent with elite coaching is all we can ask for. Check. Check.
6. Jalen Hurts (55th overall ADP) is the best "elite QB" value
The Eagles were 19th in scoring, 19th in success rate, 21st in play action rate and 23rd in passing yards per game last year, and Hurts still finishes as the QB10 in fantasy. That's his floor given his incredible rushing production, and I'm optimistic the infrastructure is in place for a rebound. That starts with Hurts, who looks notably leaner this offseason. He set career lows in all speed-based runs. He averaged 29.3 rush yards per game on scramble, designed and zone read runs, versus a 44.5 average from 2021 to 2024. I'd guess he'll be on the move more.
More importantly, the offensive line seems to be healthier now than they were last season while limping back from a gruesome Super Bowl gauntlet. They'll be coached up by new OC Sean Mannion, who is drawing rave reviews from RT Lane Johnson and others. The scheme will be more variable rather than completely static and predictable. More under center, more play action, more over the middle throws, more bootleg and more motion are all expected. Losing A.J. Brown hurts, but there was room for more DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert even before adding first-round WR Makai Lemon and small-sample king Dontayvion Wicks via trade.
Based on consensus projections, the smallest opportunity cost at QB is when drafting Hurts in Round 5 or Round 6. That checks out after there is a clear tier break at RB and WR right before.
7. Double punt QB wins in redraft.
As we can see on the chart, from above the best values in projected points over replacement is when we're drafting QBs in the 73rd to 120th overall range (Round 7-10 in 12-team leagues). By this point, our starting lineups and flex spots are filled up, and there are still plenty of starting-level fantasy options available. This group has different flavors from young dual-threats to MVP-candidate statues.
Jaxson Dart, Bo Nix, Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray have all been top-12 options in their careers, and all of them added the best receiver of their careers to the offense in Malik Nabers, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Evans and Justin Jefferson. Seems good. Then there are Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy and Jordan Love, who lead offenses that are first, fourth and eighth in projected points per the live betting markets. Baker Mayfield and Malik Willis are also fun options even later.
8. Jared Goff (QB17 ADP) leads the NFL in passing yards
He's finished second in three straight seasons, while being top-10 in pass attempts in each of the last four. Two years ago, the Lions finished seventh in scoring on defense, but those days are over now. The secondary and edge depth isn't nearly as strong as it was then, and the Lions are going to find themselves in shootouts all year long. Part of the reason the offense is projected for the fourth-most points by the betting markets is because they have to keep the foot on the gas with that defense.
Goff's sack rate spiked last year with his worst OL in years, but they found upgrades in the draft (first-round RT Blake Miller) and free agency (mauler C Cade Mays), while allowing 2025 second-round RG Tate Ratledge and 2024 sixth-round LG Christian Mahogany to develop. It's a unit that looks presentable on paper. Of course, Goff also gets to play in a dome with elite weaponry. It's possible the loss of David Montgomery pushes them to pass even more, and they haven't played a full season with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta in their primes. What's not to like as a low-end QB1?
9. Xavier Worthy (WR48) finishes as a top-36 WR
There's nothing concrete about Worthy's tape or metrics in his first two years that make me optimistic that he will turn into the next No. 1 receiver for Patrick Mahomes, but the context of how Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce look this offseason is important. If Rice can't sprint at full speed in camp and if Kelce isn't moving as well in his age-36 season, then the bar for Worthy to factor into flex consideration drops considerably.
Worthy's individual upside is tied to new usage. Last year, his average depth of target increased from 8.9 yards to 12.9, and his screen targets per game dropped from 1.2 to 0.5. Coach Andy Reid also specifically mentioned they limited Worthy's crossing routes because of the Week 1 shoulder sprain. They just didn't trust him to stay healthy afterwards, so they sacrificed him as an on-ball vertical receiver. That didn't work. If that's where he is again in 2026, then he will be a bench-only player. If they slide him around more with Rice less counted on, then there's a chance.
10. Matthew Golden (WR51) finishes as a top-40 WR
First-round receivers in good offenses are typically off the board way earlier, but Golden was a boom-bust prospect in terms of the #spreadsheets, so many people are out on him already. His tape and per-route metrics are not that of a bust or a hit, so we're back to the same debate as last year. The major difference is Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are gone, and there's even more evidence the Packers won't put Jayden Reed into two-WR sets. Those belong to Golden if he can play the guitar.
My tape evaluation leaned positive. I see someone with real speed and the ability to tap the brakes to get out of his break. He broke some tackles when given chances, and the offseason skuttlebutt is that his understanding of the playbook is much better in year two. On top of that, the Packers have been 10th in passing yards per game and 12th in scoring since 2023, despite being dead last in neutral pace. This training camp, a goal for the Packers is to pick up the pace. If they play faster, throw more or both, then Golden doesn't even have to be a real top target to be a fantasy contributor. I'm not ruling out that he is a legit top target, so I'm a big believer in him as a fantasy football sleeper.
