Bijan Robinson's $75M extension with Falcons resets market and our beliefs on value of running backs
At 8:06 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Bijan Robinson’s agent took a well-earned social media victory lap.
“Anybody have a brinks truck?” Nicole Lynn wrote, punctuating her post with the eyes emoji.
Only minutes earlier, NFL insiders had broken the news that Robinson was poised to become the league’s highest-paid running back. The Atlanta Falcons had negotiated a record-setting three-year contract extension with Robinson that secures him through 2030 and that could be worth as much as $75 million if he hits every incentive.
The biggest immediate beneficiary of Robinson resetting the top of the running back market could be a fellow 2023 first-round draft pick with a similar track record of dual-threat dominance.
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Contract negotiations involving Robinson, 24, and Gibbs, 24, challenge the often-repeated premise that it’s unwise to invest significant money or draft capital in the running back position. Late-round or undrafted RBs often blossom into productive starters, the theory goes. So rather than handing out a lucrative second contract to a running back in his prime, that’s when it’s time to move on and find a young, cheap replacement.
The problem with the idea that the current iteration of Robinson or Gibbs would be easily replaceable via the draft is that it flies in the face of logic. Robinson is perhaps the NFL’s most complete three-down back, a powerful yet elusive runner, gifted receiver and reliable pass blocker. Gibbs is the ultimate home run hitter, a back who creates explosive plays with his blend of acceleration, speed and knack for making defenders miss in tight spaces.
Despite sharing the rushing workload with veterans when they entered the league, Robinson and Gibbs have both piled up more than 5,000 yards from scrimmage in their first three NFL seasons. Only Christian McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott have hit that benchmark among modern running backs. Before that, you have to go back to the likes of LaDainian Tomlinson and Eric Dickerson.
The key question with Robinson and Gibbs is whether they can sustain this exceptional level of play long enough to justify long-term paydays.
Robinson was already under contract through the end of the 2027 season because the Falcons had previously exercised the fifth-year option on his rookie deal. His new extension ties him to the team through the end of the 2030 season, meaning he will turn 29 as the deal expires.
Gibbs enters contract negotiations in a similar position. He too is already under contract with the Lions through the end of the 2027 season but is seeking a longer commitment.
Top-tier NFL quarterbacks routinely play into their late 30s and early 40s these days. Elite offensive linemen often remain effective into their mid-30s. Even the occasional legendary receiver or edge rusher has made an impact at that age.
Running backs have the shortest shelf life of all because of the high number of punishing hits they withstand and because of how dependent the position is on acceleration and explosiveness. The likes of Derrick Henry, Frank Gore and Tiki Barber are the outliers amid a sea of running backs who fell off a cliff in their mid-to-late 20s.
Todd Gurley was just 23 when the Los Angeles Rams infamously signed him to a four-year, $58 million extension in 2018. The Rams released Gurley just two years later after lingering knee issues robbed him of his previous explosiveness.
Elliott was just 24 when the Dallas Cowboys awarded the two-time rushing champion a six-year, $90 million extension in 2019. The Cowboys moved on from Elliott well before that contract expired after injuries slowed him and his efficiency fell off.
Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson also belong on the Mount Rushmore of bad second contracts for running backs. Devonta Freeman and DeMarco Murray aren’t far behind.
And yet for all the cautionary tales in the past decade-plus, there are also plenty of examples of elite running backs whose second contracts have been a bargain.
Saquon Barkley rewarded the Philadelphia Eagles’ display of faith in him by leading his new team to a Super Bowl victory in February 2025. McCaffrey has reestablished himself as a dual-threat cheat code since the San Francisco 49ers traded for him in October 2022. Jonathan Taylor has more than justified his three-year, $42 million extension with the Colts. Henry continues to stubbornly defy Father Time.
The other factor worth considering is that the risk factor associated with signing a running back is now baked into the salaries far more than it used to be.
McCaffrey’s $19 million average annual salary is considerably less than the likes of receivers Alec Pierce, Christian Watson and Chris Godwin. Robinson’s new contract extension is a value compared to the four-year, $140 million extension receiver Zay Flowers signed Tuesday with the Ravens.
So, yes, the Falcons had to back up the “brinks truck” to retain Robinson through 2030. And, yes, the Lions will likely do the same for Gibbs in the coming days. And, yes, both franchises are taking a risk at a position where sustained elite production is at a coin flip at best.
But the price isn’t nearly as high as coveted players at other positions and Robinson and Gibbs are talented enough to justify it.
This is a risk both the Falcons and Lions should be comfortable taking.
