Yahoo! Sports

Fantasy Football: 1 notable stat for all 32 teams going into the 2026 NFL season

By Hayden Winks
August 3, 2026 14 Min Read
Comments Off on Fantasy Football: 1 notable stat for all 32 teams going into the 2026 NFL season

One fantasy football related stat for every NFL team heading into the 2026 season. The order is listed by odds to win the Super Bowl, and the notes come from snippets of my player analysis that can be found in Yahoo Plus where I have plenty of analysis, rankings, targets, fades, etc.

Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2026 NFL season

Davante Adams led the NFL with 0.76 touchdowns per game inside the 20-yard line on a 27% target share. Only Amon-Ra St. Brown and Drake London came close to matching, but his role outside the red zone was just as fascinating. He had an 18% target share with a 0% screen rate outside of the red zone with an average depth of target 15.6 yards downfield, which was the third highest at WR. Adams' role is completely big-play dependent with his easy targets evaporating.

Josh Allen has finished as the QB1 (24.6 points per game), QB3 (23.7), QB1 (25.8), and QB1 (26.4) in recent seasons. The last two years were his worst fantasy years in a long time, and he still separated from the mid- and low-end fantasy QB1s. In terms of overall finishes using fantasy points over replacement per game in half-PPR, Allen has been 30th, 18th, 30th and 19th. The only downside with him is how deep the QB group is this season, so I'd understand waiting until late Round 3 to grab Allen.

Over the past two seasons when Lamar Jackson has over five passes in a game, Zay Flowers is the WR13 in yards and the WR47 in touchdowns per game. His target share in the red zone is 15.7% versus 27.5% outside of the red zone. If he scores some long touchdowns or gets more chances in the red zone, then Flowers is an upside WR2 as he heads into his prime. Unfortunately, there's about 10 other receivers in this exact tier.

It'd be stunned if Rashid Shaheed's volume was anywhere near the 4.4-2.4-30-0 receiving line he had from Week 10 through the Super Bowl on the Seahawks. Adjusting to an already-humming offense midseason is difficult. The better baseline should be what he was doing with the Saints from 2024-2025. Shaheed averaged 7.1-4.3-57-0.3 across 15 games next to Chris Olave with injured Derek Carr and Spencer Rattler as his QBs. Those numbers were WR38 on WR30 usage in half-PPR, with obvious spike weeks for best ball specifically.

Since 2024, Travis Kelce is averaging 5.6 receptions on 23% targets without Rashee Rice but 4.3 receptions on 19% targets with him. Rice and Xavier Worthy provide as many questions as explosive upside, but if either or both break out to their potential, it'll come at the expense of Kelce's underneath looks. Worthy was also playing through injuries all last year, and we should expect him to be more involved, especially on crossers where Kelce is targeted himself. And of course, the Chiefs have added RB Kenneth Walker III and an rehabbed ACL for Patrick Mahomes.

The Greg Roman offense was far more balanced in 2024-25 (31 attempts per game) than the rest of Herbert's career (39). Roman is out. Mike McDaniel is in. McDaniel's offense utilized play action at the highest rate from 2022 on, and he will maximize motion, formations and personnel. This is absolutely an upgrade in scheme to me. 

One thing that will change is more quick game and "free" production. Since 2022, Tua Tagovailoa is fifth in success rate (49%), while Herbert was 16th (44%), despite being far more talented. This was great analysis by former USC QB Max Browne, but long story short, Herbert is pivoting to left-foot forward in the gun to increase his quick-game efficiency. That will help in many ways.

Goedert has sat between 3.7 and 4.6 receptions per game in seven straight seasons, including last year when he went 4-40-0.7 per game. His target rate is consistently that of a fringe TE1 in fantasy. It just comes down to TDs, really.

Last year was an outlier season for Goedert's TDs. He had a career-high 11, more than his totals over his previous three seasons. He wasn't ripping off a bunch of long scores, though. The Eagles were using him as a quick-pitch change up to the Tush Push. That caught defenses off guard in 2025, but that won't be the case in 2026. Goedert should be a lot closer to his TE9 expected PPR points ranking this year, rather than his TE5 overall finish in actual PPR points.

LaPorta only played the first 10 weeks of the year, when the Lions were second in points per game (31.4) and third in EPA per dropback. The offense was explosive, but LaPorta was only the TE15 in expected half-PPR points on just 5.4 targets per game. He had no weekly floor due to volume. That's the risk in a balanced offense with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams competing for looks. Those issues could persist again in 2026.

That said, LaPorta is a star on film and has some of the best advanced stats at the position. LaPorta was second in success rate (67%), fourth in EPA per target (+0.74), and fifth in yards per target (10.1) last year.

George Kittle has been the best TE in football the last couple of years, but how much of that can continue a year after a torn achilles as a 32-year-old? He was the TE1 in EPA per target, TE1 in completion percentage over expected, TE1 in yards per target and TE1 in success rate from 2024-2025. That truly elite efficiency led to a TE4 finish last season on TE9 usage. His 16% target share is not that of an elite tight end, so any dip in efficiency hits Kittle harder.

Over the past two seasons, Kittle averaged 6.1 targets and 10.5 yards per target. If those dip to 5.0 targets and 8.5 yards per target, then he's around 45 yards per game instead of the 65 yards per game across the past two seasons. That's enough to be on the TE1/2 fringe, but there is probably more injury downside than injury upside given how quick this timeline to return is.

Rhamondre Stevenson had +31% rush yards over expected on carries with three-or-fewer yards to go, while TreVeyon Henderson was at -1%. Stevenson also handled 12-of-16 inside the five-yard line carries between the two of them when healthy. Stevenson also was the RB1 overall in NextGenStat's rush yards over expected per carry!

Henderson did go absolutely nuts in the three-game sample without Stevenson, however. That was 16.5 expected half-PPR points (RB4 overall) without Stevenson, then just 7.7 with Stevenson (RB50). During the four postseason games, Stevenson had 12.0 expected points to Henderson's 5.1.

Dobbins was the RB25 on RB29 usage through 10 weeks as the Broncos' clear top option. In those weeks, second-round rookie RJ Harvey was the RB36 on RB54 usage, while coach Sean Payton also mixed in a third RB for meaningful snaps. This three-RB committee approach has been the standard from Payton for years and is very likely to continue with Dobbins, Harvey, and fourth-round rookie Jonah Coleman under contract.

David Montgomery was an RB2 threat when the Lions were the best offense in the NFL, but that won't be the case with the Texans who are 19th in projected points (23.1). For reference, the Lions in a down year last season averaged (28.3). Houston's OL keeps adding new starters. Are any of them actually good? I have an answer… It's difficult to overcome a mid OL without a receiving profile, and the Texans are 31st in EPA per carry and 22nd in rush yards per game since 2023 when DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud were brought to Houston. 

Before his injury last year, Tucker Kraft was PPR's TE1 overall on TE8 usage. In my half-PPR fantasy points over replacement metric, Kraft was 26th overall on a per-game basis. Incredible! He had two 20+ outings on the backs of wild explosive plays. His athleticism for a 6'5"/259-pound tight end is rare, and the Packers will keep featuring him on play-action shots. That's a guarantee.

Kraft is a negative regression candidate, however. He easily led the position with a +0.91 EPA per target. It's nearly impossible to average 11.4 yards per target on a 4.5 average depth of target. Even the best TEs in the NFL with that low of an aDOT typically can only hold an 8.5-9.5 YPT, and that's without a brace on their knee.

Tee Higgins has played 39 games with Joe Burrow healthy since 2022. He averaged 14.9 PPR points, equating to WR14 per-game production on WR15 usage. Even though he's a vertical ball winner receiver, Higgins is actually leading in success rate on his targets since 2022 when Burrow is healthy. That's incredible! The 6'4" X-receiver also played six games without Ja'Marr Chase since 2022, and he averaged 18.1 PPR points in them. That's WR4 per-game since 2022.

Javonte Williams' efficiency was fine in the lens of EPA per carry (RB3 among backs with 10+ carries per game) and goal-line success rate (RB1 overall). He was just horrific as a receiver, averaging 2.7 yards per target with a 33% success rate. All of that should even out as an upside RB2 with a volume-based floor. The Cowboys were second in neutral pace last year, and they're projected for the sixth-most points in 2026, according to the betting markets. Williams just has to be serviceable as an individual talent to pay off his 36th overall ADP.

Rome Odunze's role led him to being sixth-highest in average depth of target, yet 73rd in catchable ball rate out of 79 WR qualifiers since 2024. There were inaccurate passes from Caleb Williams far too often, and then Odunze's physical style led to some incomplete passes while in tough situations.

Odunze only mustered up a WR36 per-game sophomore season on WR18 usage and WR22 targets per game (7.1). That level of usage should be maintained with DJ Moore's trade leaving a pathway to nearly full-time snaps.

Last year, Travis Etienne Jr. was able to earn RB14 per-game volume, while Bhayshul Tuten was just the RB60. I'd be surprised if it was that drastic of a split between Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. this season. During OTAs, head coach Liam Coen said the backfield race is wide open and hit-less practices up to date aren't going to sway things, even if Rodriguez missed almost all of it.

Rodriguez and Coen have familiarity dating back to a season together at Kentucky when C-Rod had 1,440 total yards and 12 total touchdowns. Coen describes him as a very physical runner, which backs up what he churns out in short-yardage specifically. Rodriguez's +0.11 EPA per carry on carries with 5-or-fewer yards to go easily beats out what the Jaguars had between Etienne (-0.10) and Tuten (+0.03) last year. A similar split held true on all red zone carries (+0.20 EPA per carry vs. +0.06 and -0.01.

Before 2025's disaster, this is how many fantasy points the Vikings' starting QBs with Kevin O'Connell have averaged and where that would've ranked last year in fantasy: Kirk Cousins (20.2, QB7), Nick Mullens (19.9, QB8), Sam Darnold (19.7, QB8), Josh Dobbs (17.6, QB17). That was largely without rushing!!!

What happens if Kyler Murray can somewhat match the 2022-2024 Vikings' average of 249 passing yards per game (5th), while also averaging his career average of 37 rushing yards per game??? Well, then Murray would be a no-doubter top-10 fantasy QB with an underrated ceiling.

Bucky Irving missed most of 2025, and he was 64th in EPA per carry out of 66 qualifying RBs when he was out there. Afterwards, he needed offseason shoulder surgery. I fear the best of his career is behind him, especially after more evidence that Liam Coen is an elite play-caller.

Irving should start and handle the most carries, but the Bucs brought in Kenny Gainwell on a $10 million guaranteed contract to be the pass-game specialist after catching 73 balls last year. That level of usage isn't available in Tampa Bay with Baker Mayfield playing polar-opposite ball as Aaron Rodgers. On top of that, Sean Tucker is a capable No. 3 back, and his size dwarfs the others. Tucker actually handled 6-of-7 carries inside the five-yard line after Irving returned in Week 13. This looks like a frustrating three-back committee. 

Josh Downs is the WR27 in yards per route in three-WR sets over the past two seasons. The question is total routes, not efficiency. Over the past two seasons, Downs has caught less than 10 passes in non-three-WR sets. That's simply not enough to be an every-week factor in fantasy football in this balanced Colts' offense. 2026 is a new year, and in mini camp and OTAs, Colts reporters have hinted that it's Downs in two-WR sets. The Colts averaged 8.2 routes in 12-personnel last year, so that could be another two-ish targets and 15-ish yards per game. If so, that'd put him in the 50+ yards per game, which is typical of a full-PPR WR3/flex option during the bye weeks.

Terry McLaurin has 23 games with Jayden Daniels. He's the WR14 on WR26 usage on a per-game basis using PPR scoring with him, while obviously running pure on touchdowns. Right now, the Commanders are 16th in projected points in 2026. That easily could be inside the top-10 whenever Daniels is active.

Jaxson Dart was 13th in EPA per play and 17th in success rate per play. A lot of that was as a rusher, where he totaled the 2nd-most EPA among QBs, only trailing Josh Allen. He was also 1st in passer rating on plays excluding 1st-read throws, per PFF. With the latest news on Malik Nabers being positive, it's getting easier to view Dart as a legitimate punt QB1 option in redraft.

DK Metcalf was highly inconsistent in a slow and balanced Aaron Rodgers offense last year, ultimately finishing as the WR27 on WR34 expected half PPR points and WR32 targets. Things only look trickier in 2026 after Rodgers re-signed as a 42-year-old and the Steelers added Michael Pittman and 2nd-rounder Germie Bernard to the WR room. Metcalf only had a 15% target share with 3+ WRs on the field last year, versus a 25% target share as the lone WR. The Steelers should be in more WR-heavy looks this year based on their personnel and the history of coach Mike McCarthy.

Travis Etienne Jr. has cleared 1,399 total yards in 3-of-4 NFL seasons, and his lone miss was when unhealthy with coach Doug Pederson. Quietly, this is Etienne's best environment he's ever been in for fantasy points. Head coach Kellen Moore has been functional at every stop, including in his head coaching debut last year with emerging QB Tyler Shough. The Saints were first in neutral pace last year, and their OL features promising first-round talents at both OT spots, two returning players on the interior, and then a new floor-raising veteran at LG.

The Panthers fall in and out of love with Chuba Hubbard, but he played 77% of snaps in 2024 and finished with 17 opportunities and two scores in the Panthers' playoff loss last season. When healthy, Hubbard has been a great asset at cost. He was the RB12 on RB7 usage two seasons ago, while being the RB4 in rush yards over expected (+24%). Last season, he dropped to -21% RYOE from Week 7 on after coming back from injury.

I just don't buy him being that bad. He'll likely lose pass-down snaps to Jonathon Brooks, who is coming off his second ACL tear, but Hubbard is a clear favorite for carries, at least compared to last year when he lost the role to current-Steeler Rico Dowdle. If Brooks can't hold up or isn't the same player, then Hubbard is discounted in drafts coming off his outlier bad season. There's risk here, but I can still see a pathway to him being a nice hit in Round 6-7.

Drake London was the WR5 on WR5 usage from 2024 through Week 11 of 2025 when he went down with a PCL injury. Only Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase had a higher target share (29.6%) over that span, and the Falcons only added depth in the skill group this offseason in third-round slot Zachariah Branch, Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus. Long story short, London is getting the damn rock this season.

Brock Bowers' 64.6 YPG through his first two seasons are the most since at least 2000 at TE, and his five closest comps (George Kittle, Jeremy Shockey, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Aaron Hernandez) averaged 4.0 more YPG in their third NFL season. His 13-closest comps averaged +7 YPG, too. That includes HOF talents like Antonio Gates and Kelce.

Cam Ward had a very difficult rookie season. Out of 41 qualifiers, he was the QB38 in EPA per dropback (-0.19), 39th in passing success rate (37%), and 40th in catchable ball rate (60%). His throwing motion is inconsistent, which led to inaccuracies to all levels. Even after factoring in how aggressive his throws were, Ward's completion percentage over expected was 35th out of 41 QBs. The ball never died on him. It was more about throwing without touch or by squeezing some throws in after being a tad late.

Quinshon Judkins was the RB23 on RB17 usage as a rookie. He averaged 14.1 fantasy points in two games with Joe Flacco, 11.7 with Dillon Gabriel, and then 9.5 with Shedeur Sanders. He dominated touches with all of them, especially in high-value areas like the red zone where he handled 31-of-35 RB carries in his active games. I like Dylan Sampson as a change-of-pace, but he will not compete at the goal line in the rare occasion the Browns march down the field.

The Jets are still projected for 18.6 points per game in the betting markets. That's 31st. When the Jets were 29th in scoring last year (17.6 points per game), Breece Hall only managed an RB22 on RB20 per-game finish. Geno Smith should be a floor raiser versus Brady Cook, and in the 12 games without Cook in 2025, Hall at least averaged 12.4 half PPR points (RB17). That was just 9.1 with Cook (RB32).

Across 159 plays over the past three seasons, Willis is the QB1 in EPA per play, QB1 in completion percentage over expected, and QB11 in success rate out of 79 qualifiers. That's as a passer! For fantasy, however, we're largely here for the rushing upside. Willis is the QB1 since 2022 in percentage of dropbacks resulting in a scramble at 14%, and that held true as a Packer at 15%. The NFL average is 5% for reference. And then when he scrambled as a Packer, Willis averaged 8.9 yards per scramble, which only trailed Justin Herbert among projected starters heading into 2026. The NFL average is 7.7 yards. Then we get to the QB designed game. Only Lamar Jackson averaged more YPC than Willis on them, and he does it with speed and toughness. He's third in yards after contact per carry over the past four seasons and has at least repped QB sneaks on occasion. I think he will be a factor at the goal line, especially with De'Von Achane (5'9"/191 lbs) as the starting RB.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has a career 1.1% screen rate, and he was lining up on the line of scrimmage in a static way on a large majority of his snaps. He was rarely put in motion or thrown passes that'd lead to more YAC. That likely changes to some extent with new HC Mike LaFleur, but some of that is because Harrison isn't a nimble athlete with short-yardage burst. That hurts his weekly consistency. In his first two seasons, Harrison is the WR42 on WR40 usage on a per-game basis. Last year's finish was actually slightly worse than it was as a rookie after Michael Wilson and Trey McBride each took a leap.

Author

Hayden Winks

Follow Me
Other Articles