The real reason Americans are fleeing blue states for Florida and Texas
This month, New York Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli launched a taxpayer migration dashboard showing the number of people leaving his state. To the surprise of few, New York is hemorrhaging residents, especially from its middle class. DiNapoli put it plainly: "I remain very concerned about the net loss of married, middle-class filers, and urge policymakers to continue their efforts to improve affordability for New York's families."
My own analysis of five years of nationwide IRS records — covering every move made by every American taxpayer between 2018 and 2023 — confirms what these families already know. Nurses in Queens and firefighters in Los Angeles understand better than anyone that working-class paychecks don't buy middle-class lives anymore.
Yet the statistics also offer new insights into what’s happening.
NEW YORK CITY LOST RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL INCOME LEVELS LAST YEAR, STUDY FINDS
Over those five years, California lost more than 1.2 million people. On balance, almost 1.7 million residents of New York, Massachusetts and Illinois also took their tax dollars, spending and income elsewhere. Florida gained more people than any other state, while Idaho, South Carolina, Delaware and Montana were other popular destinations.
When I went looking for the precise reasons people moved, the usual suspects didn't quite hold up. It wasn't the weather. It wasn’t partisan lean. It wasn't even the cost of living, strictly speaking.
States with lower taxes gained residents. So did states with freer labor markets and abundant housing. Those with high taxes, government barriers to finding careers and excessive constraints on building homes lost people. The pattern held even after accounting for the other explanations people often reach for first.
BLUE-STATE TAX BURDEN FUELS AMERICANS FLEEING TO REPUBLICAN-LED SOUTHERN STATES
This points to a lesson that blue-state lawmakers who try to manufacture affordability through government spending and mandates never seem to understand. People go where it's simpler and easier to earn a living, buy a home and build a career. It’s that easy.
Every few hundred dollars the taxman doesn’t take can mean a week’s groceries, a car payment or back-to-school clothes. States that respect the sweat equity of their workers are winning the migration race. Florida, Texas, Tennessee and half a dozen others have no state income tax. A married couple earning $100,000 in New York City owes $6,668 more in income taxes every year than it would owe in one of the nine states without an income tax. At $150,000, that difference jumps to $11,338.
However, it isn’t just taxes that determine where people move. Affordable housing gets them to settle. My research shows that states issuing more building permits — those where it's actually possible to build new homes without a multiyear fight at the local zoning board — gained more residents than states measured by any other factor.
THE KEY STRATEGY RED STATES ARE USING TO LOWER HOUSING COSTS REVEALED
When a state makes it hard to build — or allows its municipal authorities to run amok — home prices climb, and workers move to states where builders can keep up with demand. Idaho, South Carolina and Florida make it relatively easy to build. Once again, New York and California make it difficult, and their mistake shows up every year in the form of moving trucks heading for the state line.
Freedom to work matters, too. States that make it easier to hire, get licensed and start a business also saw strong gains, even after accounting for everything else.
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For example, Virginia requires licenses for 72 different occupations. Workers in these fields face an average of 580 days of education and experience requirements, compared with only 228 days in North Carolina. Why would a worker — one who may already be qualified — choose to move somewhere that requires an extra year of training?
Running through all of this is the same lesson: The more freely a state’s residents can work, build and earn, the more likely the state is to retain the families who power its economy in the first place. Most Americans aren't leaving high-tax, housing-constrained states because of the weather, and they're not moving to Florida or Texas by accident. They're following paychecks and mortgages they can actually afford.
Thomas DiNapoli is right to be worried about New York's future, and the fix isn't complicated. Cut the tax burden, let builders build and get out of the way of work. Or watch the moving trucks pull away.
