NFL offseason power rankings: No. 5 New England Patriots out to show last season was the start of something big
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There aren't many teams throughout NFL history that won 14 games and a conference championship.
The list of Super Bowl participants who won 14 games and then were ignored like the New England Patriots were this offseason might be a party of one.
It seems odd. The Patriots had a magnificent season with new coach Mike Vrabel, who won NFL Coach of the Year. Quarterback Drake Maye would have won NFL MVP in his second NFL season had just one voter flipped his or her first-place vote from Matthew Stafford to him. Typically, that profile gets hyped up all offseason as the next in line to win a Super Bowl or two. Instead, the most you've heard about the Patriots this offseason had to do with Vrabel's off-field missteps.
The Patriots being dismissed started late last season, when talk of strength of schedule crept into the conversation in a way it rarely has in NFL circles. It was the third easiest by DVOA since 1978, according to Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy, with only the 1991 Bills and 1999 Rams having an easier schedule. The chatter about strength of schedule probably cost Maye the MVP award. It was also probably overdone.
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Did you ever hear anyone downgrade the 1991 Bills or 1999 Rams due to strength of schedule? Of course not. Both of those teams made it back to a Super Bowl within the next two seasons, by the way. An easy NFL schedule is still tougher, relatively speaking, than a college football team putting together a great record in the Sun Belt. But late last season it became a big deal, and just for the Patriots.
A playoff run didn't help the perception of the Patriots, strangely enough. They barely beat a Jarrett Stidham-led Broncos team in the AFC championship game, and might not have won if it weren't for a second-half snowstorm. In the Super Bowl the Patriots were entirely outmatched by the Seahawks, trailing 19-0 a few minutes into the fourth quarter. They were never competitive in the game.
It all contributed to a fairly quiet offseason for a 14-3 AFC champion, outside of the salacious headlines from Vrabel's relationship with NFL insider Dianna Russini. The lack of attention seems a bit disrespectful, even if you account for inevitable regression. A team doesn't win 14 games by accident. Again, the NFL isn't college football. You can't schedule Sacramento State for homecoming in the pros.
The hope for avoiding a major fall starts with Maye. He had a fantastic season, regardless of who he played. His analytical profile was outstanding, and he led the NFL in plenty of common metrics, like completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating. Maye completing 72% of his passes while finishing second in average depth of target, and doing it in his second season while also adding 450 yards and four touchdowns rushing, was astounding.
And now Maye gets a true No. 1 receiver. The Patriots finished a long-awaited trade with the Eagles for A.J. Brown. There are some questions about Brown's knee over the long term, but he has been an elite talent for years and immediately changes the Patriots' offense.
The Patriots are probably going to regress some, just because any team that wins 14 or more games is very likely to take a step back. Also, the Super Bowl hangover for the losing team is a very strong trend. But what they're building isn't fluky, even if nobody seems overly excited about it this offseason.
Offseason grade
The A.J. Brown deal, like the Patriots' offseason itself, didn't have the type of buzz you'd think it would. Maybe that's because it was drawn out for weeks as the teams waited for June 1 (when it was overshadowed by the blockbuster Myles Garrett trade on the same day), the first date in which the Eagles could split up the salary cap hit. Stefon Diggs, who was cut this offseason, was solid last season, but Brown should be a major upgrade. Drake Maye nearly won MVP without an alpha receiver to throw to, and Brown fixes that. The Patriots also think highly of former Packers receiver Romeo Doubs, as shown by the four-year, $68 million deal they signed him to.
Offensive line was a problem for the Patriots despite a fantastic season, and it was exposed in the Super Bowl. The team signed guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, a talented player who has significant injury concerns. It also drafted Caleb Lomu in the first round. Lomu played left tackle at Utah, which brought about questions over whether the team still believed in 2025 first-rounder Will Campbell as its left tackle, but early on the Patriots were trying out Lomu in multiple spots.
The Patriots spent big last offseason and had great success doing it, and while this offseason was quieter, they still spent at least $12 million per season on Doubs, Vera-Tucker and defensive lineman Dre'Mont Jones in addition to landing Brown. They also signed safety Kevin Byard, a first-team All-Pro last season, to a one-year, $7 million deal. The Patriots did lose edge rusher K'Lavon Chaisson, defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga and safety Jaylinn Hawkins, but overall the offseason was very good.
Grade: A-
Quarterback report
Matthew Stafford was a fine pick for NFL MVP. But Maye had one of the better runner-up seasons you'll see. That's why Stafford barely won, getting 366 points to Maye's 361.
Maye's advanced stats were incredible. He was first in EPA (expected points added) per play and first in completion percentage over expectation by a mile. His CPOE (a strong measure of a QB's accuracy) was 10.3%, and second place was 7.2%. He did so with average air yards per attempt of 9.2, which was second in the NFL and shows he wasn't living off checkdowns or his receivers doing the work after short completions.
Maye was a bit fortunate in turnovers, with only eight interceptions despite 26 turnover-worthy plays (via Pro Football Focus), which was tied for second-most in the NFL. And Maye wasn't great in the playoffs, though he faced three of the best defenses in the NFL. But overall, Maye's second season looks like the start of a new era of top-level quarterback play in New England.
Odds breakdown
From Yahoo's Ben Fawkes: "New England went into last season with the second-easiest schedule by opposing season win totals and used that advantage to cruise to an impressive 14-3 record (11-5-1 ATS) and a Super Bowl appearance. Things will be more difficult this year. The Patriots are still favored in 10 games and have a win total of 9.5, but start the season as underdogs in three of their first four. How much will the A.J. Brown trade truly open up this offense? Will Drake Maye bounce back from a rough playoff run? Those questions and more await the Patriots this season."
Yahoo's fantasy take
From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "It's no fun to put Drake Maye in the fade column, but we have to be mindful of regression. Even with receiver reinforcements, it's hard to imagine him matching last year's dream efficiency (8.9 YPA, 72% completion rate). The Patriots also have a much harder schedule in 2026. Maye's Yahoo ADP stands at 44, a spot where I'm more likely to take a running back or a receiver. Quarterback is historically deep this year, so consider playing the value game."
Stat to remember
Most seasons, the team with the best injury luck ends up in the playoffs. No team had better injury luck last season than the Patriots.
According to FTN Fantasy's adjusted games lost, the Patriots lost only 43.5 games due to injury, the best mark in the NFL. Seattle, the other Super Bowl team, was third on that list. Seven of the 10 teams that had the fewest injuries made the playoffs. Injury luck and success on the field is strongly correlated. And injury luck is not a factor that typically repeats year after year.
If New England has a tougher season with injuries, that's yet another reason to believe the Patriots will not replicate a special 2025 season.
Burning question: Is TreVeyon Henderson ready for a bigger role?
The Patriots' rushing attack had 2,191 yards and 22 touchdowns, which ranked sixth and fourth in the NFL, but advanced stats say there is improvement to be had. New England was 25th in rushing EPA and 26th in success rate. Consistency in the run game was lacking. Perhaps one way to improve that is getting Henderson more involved.
The consternation from some was that Henderson, an exciting second-round rookie last season, didn't get a bigger share. Rhamondre Stevenson averaged a good 4.6 yards per carry, but Henderson was at 5.1 and had a higher success rate. Henderson also profiled as a good receiver out of the backfield coming out of college, though Stevenson ended up with more receiving yards. Henderson had some rookie issues in pass protection (he excelled in pass protection at Ohio State) and that cut into his playing time. Stevenson had 533 snaps to 501 for Henderson even though Stevenson played in three fewer games.
Considering Stevenson did have a successful season, maybe not much changes in the backfield. But it might be tough for the Patriots to keep Henderson's snaps low if he shows some expected improvement in his second season.
Best-case scenario
Generally, when a 23-year-old quarterback with a strong draft pedigree comes one vote from winning MVP in his second season, he's treated as the next star of the league. Drake Maye's quiet postseason might be a reason the excitement for him has been a bit muted. Maybe it shouldn't be. Maye was excellent last season. While some regression might be inevitable for Maye and the Patriots as a whole, Maye is already one of the NFL's best quarterbacks.
Maybe he can fight off regression and win MVP this season. A.J. Brown could have a monster season as he tries to show that he wasn't the problem with the Eagles' passing attack. Mike Vrabel is proven to be a top head coach and teams don't win 14 games and an AFC championship by accident. If Maye is a top-three quarterback again (or if he's No. 1) and Vrabel's defense is even better in his second season as head coach, the Patriots can make it right back to a Super Bowl.
Nightmare scenario
NFL Coach of the Year usually goes to the coach of the team that had the most sudden, surprising improvement. And those types of teams have significant regression danger. Of the 10 NFL Coach of the Year winners before Vrabel won last season, nine won at least three fewer games the following season, including Vrabel:
Ron Rivera, 2015: 15 wins to 6
Jason Garrett, 2016: 13 wins to 9
Sean McVay, 2017: 11 wins to 13
Matt Nagy, 2018: 12 wins to 8
John Harbaugh, 2019: 14 wins to 11
Kevin Stefanski, 2020: 11 wins to 8
Vrabel, 2021: 12 wins to 7
Brian Daboll, 2022: 9 wins to 6
Stefanski, 2023: 11 wins to 3
Kevin O'Connell, 2024: 14 wins to 9
This isn't some "Coach of the Year curse" or a sign that good coaches lose it over an offseason. It's the plexiglass principle, which says that teams that improve a ton over one season are bound to come back to the mean. The Patriots have a good quarterback situation, which some of those coaches didn't have after winning the award, but we all know that it's practically inevitable the Patriots don't repeat last season's record.
Having the Buffalo Bills in the same division means that a step back would probably cost them the AFC East title, too. A year ago, the idea of a 10- or 11-win season for the Patriots and finishing second to the Bills in the AFC East wouldn't have sounded so bad. After last season, it would seem like a big disappointment.
The crystal ball says
You'll hear, or have heard, that the Patriots are one of the NFL's most likely teams to decline this season. Yeah, no kidding. Only nine teams in NFL history have won 15 games. The Patriots are very unlikely to improve upon a 14-3 season. That doesn't mean last season was lucky or that they are going to fall off.
What's lost in the lack of buzz over the Patriots is that Drake Maye has arrived as a star. That, along with Mike Vrabel being one of the league's best coaches, means the Patriots aren't going to collapse. It also helps that Josh McDaniels has likely run out of head-coaching chances, giving the Patriots an elite offensive coordinator without a big worry over losing him soon.
I am not picking the Patriots to win the AFC East, but that's due more to Buffalo than any worry about New England. The Patriots will be just fine and back in the playoffs, where they'll reside for years to come. You weren't ready for another long run of success from the Patriots, but it's coming.
