Fantasy Football: Big-name players who could struggle through tough early-season schedules
This might sound odd coming from someone who just released his Fantasy Strength of Schedule Matrix, but you need to be careful to not overweigh those types of season-long metrics.
As I mentioned in that article, the full-season strength of schedule is good to use as a tiebreaker between players you’re targeting in drafts — just don’t get overconfident and let it dictate your outlooks for later in the year. That’s because injuries and changes in performance on both sides of the ball can have a significant impact in the latter stages of a campaign.
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The best way to gain an advantage using strength of schedule is by focusing on the first few weeks and drafting players set for hot starts or avoiding those likely to struggle through a tough streak of opponents. Players with difficult schedules in the early going are prime trade targets when managers begin to question their value in the opening month.
So let’s take a look at each position and identify who has the hardest early-season slates.
Hardest Early QB Schedules
Josh Allen, Bills
This is the perfect spot to begin, since it allows us to once again clarify that a bad early season schedule doesn’t mean you’re avoiding a player entirely, especially when that player is the best fantasy quarterback.
Allen, who has been a top-three fantasy producer on a per game basis for six straight years, is getting even more weapons to work with in the form of DJ Moore and Skyler Bell. While he’s always capable of putting on the Superman cape and overcoming any challenging matchup, we might need to brace for at least a couple floor games in the opening month. The Texans’ ferocious defense forced one of Allen’s worst performances of 2025 and should be just as dangerous this year. He’ll also take a Chargers unit that allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to QBs last season. Though Allen tends to come through against the Patriots, their defense didn’t hit its stride until the stretch run and could be even tougher this time around.
Don’t let this sway you away from drafting Allen, but make sure you adjust your expectations for September.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
Lawrence finished last season as hot as any quarterback in fantasy. He was a top-five QB in four of his last five outings as he settled into Liam Coen’s offense and took advantage of an easy slate. His runout won’t be as smooth to start the 2026 campaign, however, facing the Browns, Broncos and Patriots in the first three weeks. Each one of those defenses finished last year as one of the top 12 hardest matchups for fantasy QBs and even with roster changes this offseason they still project to be challenging opponents. Sharp Football Analysis ranks all three of those secondaries as top-10 units entering the season. Even the Bengals, who were a generous matchup last year, project to be more difficult moving forward. The good news is Lawrence has the fourth easiest fantasy schedule for the whole season, so as long as he survives the daunting start, the wind will be at his back the rest of the way.
Honorable mentions: Caleb Williams, Baker Mayfield
Hardest Early RB Schedules
James Cook, Bills
As a Bills’ fan, I hate that the first two sections of this article revolve around players from my favorite team. Sadly, this is the reality Buffalo’s offense finds itself in to start the season and it’s even worse for Cook. In addition to facing legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the first five weeks (Rams in Week 5), all four of his opponents in the first month landed in the top-10 for fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs a year ago. For the record, the Rams came in at 11th but should be even more stout after beefing up their defensive line with Myles Garrett and possibly luring Aaron Donald out of retirement.
Before you point to Cook’s Week 15 performance against New England (111 scrimmage yards, 3 TDs) as a sign of hope, just know that Milton Williams wasn’t on the field for that game. In their earlier matchup with Williams active, Cook was held to 49 scoreless yards. And while I’d like to tell you it gets better after this stretch, that would be a lie. The Bills RBs have to deal with the second most difficult fantasy schedule over the course of the season. Let’s hope the reports of Cook being more involved in the passing game materialize so he can offset the concerning gauntlet of run defenses ahead of him.
TreVeyon Henderson/Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
Most of the discussion around the Patriots’ backfield has been focused on who will be the more valuable fantasy asset between Henderson and Stevenson, but we may not get a clear answer at the beginning of the season due to the strenuous path they’ll be forced to undertake.
That starts with the defending champion Seahawks who were the second toughest opponent for fantasy RBs in 2025, followed by the Steelers defense that was sixth in that category and the Jaguars defense that was third. Buffalo was a matchup to target last year, but even they might be a more interesting test given the change in scheme under new coordinator Jim Leonhard. While we’ll learn more during training camp about the Patriots’ plans for deploying Henderson and Stevenson, it’s worth noting that the team leaned heavily on Stevenson during their playoff run when they encountered a series of difficult run defenses. It’s also worth mentioning that Stevenson wasn’t overly effective during that span.
Honorable mentions: Chase Brown, JK Dobbins
Hardest Early WR Schedules
Emeka Egbuka/Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
In general, the Buccaneers offense is on the verge of a bounce back campaign after dealing with a variety of injuries at almost every position last year. The departure of Mike Evans also opens up opportunity for the other receivers to take a step forward in their fantasy production, However, the schedule may delay that launch slightly considering the Bengals, Browns and Vikings all ranked inside the top five for fewest fantasy points given up to wideouts in 2025, while the Packers joined the Vikings and Browns in the top 10 for lowest receiving yards permitted on the year. The Week 4 matchup would be a little nicer if Micah Parsons misses the first month, as The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman has suggested.
I still believe Egbuka, Godwin and to a lesser extent Jalen McMillan are all solid targets at their current ADPs, but we could see them stumble out of the blocks in September. If that occurs, fantasy managers should go out of their way to try and buy low into the Bucs’ passing attack.
Luther Burden III/Rome Odunze, Bears
The Bears are another receiving corps I’m happily investing in this year, but the degree of difficulty will be high in the early goings of the 2026 season. The Panthers defense led by Jaycee Horn were the ninth toughest opponent for fantasy receivers last year, while Brian Flores’ Vikings defense was first and the Eagles were sixth. The Week 4 game against the Jets can’t come soon enough for fantasy managers hoping to capitalize with Ben Johnson’s young offense.
Just know that Chicago ranks sixth or worse in terms of fantasy strength of schedule at every position this season. Even so, the potential of this group makes me push all schedule concerns aside and draft them at will. That also extends to the rest of the offense, including Colston Loveland, Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.
Honorable mentions: Parker Washington/Brian Thomas Jr./Jakobi Meyers, DK Metcalf/Michael Pittman Jr.
Hardest Early TE Schedules
Oronde Gadsden II, Chargers
Gadsden is full of potential and the arrival of new OC Mike McDaniel elevates the high-end outcomes for the entire offense. Though fantasy managers remember his contributions fondly, Gadsden’s production in 2025 mostly amounted to one strong month where he eclipsed 10 fantasy points in four straight weeks. It’s a feat he only accomplished twice over his final eight outings and now, he’s got serious competition for snaps and targets. Charlie Kolar has earned a lot of praise in offseason practices and veteran David Njoku will also factor into the mix. That’s on top of the Chargers’ strong receiver and running back rooms. Then we throw a tricky first few weeks that features matchups with two of the top-four toughest opponents for fantasy tight ends last year in the Raiders and Bills. It all boils down to Gadsden being a volatile TE2 for fantasy and someone you simply don’t need to chase thanks to the other quality options at the position.
Juwan Johnson, Saints
Johnson was quietly the TE14 in fantasy points per game last year with nine top-10 weekly finishes. Unfortunately, his environment has changed with the addition of a pair of rookie pass-catchers in first-round wideout Jordyn Tyson and third-round tight end Oscar Delp. Tyson is the more immediate threat, but Delp might be the man who eventually overtakes Johnson for the starting job in New Orleans. While a fast start could create some distance between Johnson and his rookie teammate, the schedule won’t do him any favors. The Ravens, Raiders and Falcons all ranked inside the top six in fewest fantasy points given up to tight ends in 2025. For Johnson to be a startable fantasy option, we’re going to need to see a sizable touchdown total and his only season with more than four TDs occurred back in 2022.
Aside from best ball, Johnson is best left for another manager to deal with this season.
Honorable mentions: Greg Dulcich, Gunnar Helm
