2026 Fantasy Football Rankings Tiers: Josh Allen on an island at QB in first Shuffle Up from Scott Pianowski
It’s one of the first things you learn when you cut your teeth on fantasy football. In real-life NFL, everything is about the quarterback. In the fantasy world, the quarterbacks don’t matter that much.
Let’s be clear what we mean by that latter point. Obviously QBs score the most points in traditional leagues, and obviously we care greatly about how well a quarterback plays — his efficiency will affect every player on his offense. We’ll scout these guys carefully and monitor every hiccup. But when it comes to roster assembly, the QB chase isn’t that important because there are plenty of good ones.
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And at the end of the day, a player’s true fantasy value is defined as how much better he is than the average at the position. Raw point totals don’t matter in this game — it’s all about the margins, the deltas.
Welcome to the fresh season. The Shuffle Up series reflects how I tier positions as I get ready for my drafts. The prices are unscientific in nature and meant to illustrate where talent clusters and drops off. Players listed at the same price are considered even.
The Island
$24 Josh Allen, BUF
Allen’s rushing chops and durability earn him the undisputed top spot on anyone’s board. And score one for consistency — his last six QB finishes line up this way: QB1, QB1, QB2, QB1, QB2, QB1. I am unlikely to draft Allen anywhere because I respect the depth of the position and I don’t want to fall a beat behind with my RB and WR assembly. But it’s foolish to consider anyone else in this position, especially with WR D.J. Moore now in Buffalo.
The Big Tickets
$21 Lamar Jackson, BAL
$20 Drake Maye, NE
$20 Joe Burrow, CIN
$18 Jayden Daniels, WAS
$18 Jalen Hurts, PHI
This is another tier I’m unlikely to shop in, because the third tier has a bunch of interesting options at reasonable prices. Jackson’s upside might be capped by his relatively low number of rushing touchdowns. Maye was a breakout star as a sophomore, but some of the efficiency should regress, even with A.J. Brown added. And the New England schedule is much harder this year. Hurts lost some of his rushing equity last year, and it might take him some time to get comfortable with a new receiver room.
Legitimate Building Blocks
$16 Caleb Williams, CHI
$15 Justin Herbert, LAC
$15 Trevor Lawrence, JAX
$15 Dak Prescott, DAL
$14 Brock Purdy, SF
$12 Jaxson Dart, NYG
$11 Bo Nix, DEN
$11 Matthew Stafford, LAR
Williams took a step forward in Year 2, clicking with Ben Johnson’s creative scheming and growing comfortable with a bunch of exciting skill talents. I want to draft proactively into the Chicago offense.
Herbert gets a pass for the messy 2025, as the offensive line went kablooey in September and the play calling went stale. Give Herbert adequate protection — and if the LAC line is healthy, it’s a top-5 unit — and some inspired scheming from new OC Mike McDaniel and this offense could go to the moon.
Lawrence was socking it to everyone in December, a legitimate league-winner. And his breakthrough came despite a lost season from Travis Hunter and a disappointing one from Brian Thomas Jr. Head coach Liam Coen turned out to be a smashing right answer. Finally, that funky Lawrence nickname (The Prince Who Was Promised) doesn’t sound so silly. Lawrence probably won’t rush in nine touchdowns again, but with a deep group of receivers, he doesn’t have to.
The Dallas carnival is alive and well, a leaky defense and a dangerous offense. Prescott has forever been underrated, and he might have the best 1-2 punch in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. If I’m not overweight on Prescott shares come Labor Day, something’s gone horrible wrong. He’s a proactive pick.
Purdy would be a little higher if his supporting cast were a little younger — primary weapons Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans and George Kittle are all 30-something, and we can’t be sure Kittle will be September-ready. But Purdy’s efficiency has always leapt off the page since turning pro, and I could see a breakout coming from third-year wideout Ricky Pearsall.
Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
$10 Patrick Mahomes, KC
$10 Kyler Murray, ARI
$9 Jared Goff, DET
$9 Jordan Love, GB
$7 Baker Mayfield, TB
$7 Malik Willis, MIA
Mahomes paid his fantasy freight with resourceful rushing last year, but after a major knee injury, that stuff likely goes on ice for 2026. And don’t let the K.C. name brand fool you — this former sports car offense has been riding the bus for about two years. The fantasy racket is about the numbers, not the names.
I’ve said for years that I’d follow Kevin O’Connell into a burning building, and when the 2026 Minnesota offense burned to the ground, I mostly blamed it on J.J. McCarthy. But it’s a little frustrating to see Murray struggling to onboard quickly in Minnesota — it’s been a rough spring and summer from on-the-ground reports — and I’ve pulled back on his price slightly.
Goff is a little boring but forever underrated, the NFL’s leader in touchdown passes over the past four years. There’s some survivor bias baked into that stat, but it also reflects the joy of an indoor offense and a unit tied to several dynamic skill players. In leagues where you need more than one starter at QB, Goff is a terrific value target for your QB2.
Some Plausible Upside
$6 Tyler Shough, NO
$6 Sam Darnold, SEA
$5 C.J. Stroud, HOU
$5 Daniel Jones, IND
$4 Cam Ward, TEN
$4 Jacoby Brissett, ARI
Play-caller Kellen Moore was cooking late in the 2025 season and I could see the Saints stealing the watered-down NFC South this year. Shough reminds me a little of Baker Mayfield, a sneaky-athletic competitor who isn’t afraid to press the ball downfield. The skill talent around him is decent, too.
Jones was piloting a top-5 offense for a couple of months last year before an unfortunate Achilles tear. The rehab reports have been positive on Jones, but he’s without Michael Pittman Jr. this year, and deep threat Alec Pierce (ankle) is currently on the PUP list. If Pierce isn’t in the clear before the regular season, Jones has to be handled carefully.
Ward was set up to fail as a rookie but at least put some positive moments on tape. The moment wasn’t too big for him, and I think he has a chance to be an above-average starter in time. The Titans added much-needed reinforcements downfield, with first-round pick Carnell Tate and underrated short-route specialist Wan’Dale Robinson. Ward will be a value target for me when I negotiate my Superflex drafts.
Bargain Bin
$3 Bryce Young, CAR
$3 Aaron Rodgers, PIT
$3 Geno Smith, NYJ
$3 Tua Tagovailoa, ATL
$2 Fernando Mendoza, LVR
$2 Michael Penix Jr., ATL
$1 Deshaun Watson, CLE
$1 Kirk Cousins, LVR
$1 Shedeur Sanders, CLE
