Winners and losers of the LeBron James Sweepstakes

The content-creating world’s long international nightmare is over: LeBron James has chosen his new team. And, in a move that will bring no small consternation to fans in Northeast Ohio and Biscayne Bay, he has indeed chosen a new team.

The leading scorer in NBA history is now a member of the Philadelphia 76ers, agreeing to terms on a two-year, $8 million contract to line up alongside Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, fellow new arrival Jaylen Brown and rising sophomore VJ Edgecombe in the City of Brotherly Love. (What percentage of the Sixers’ salary cap figure will James account for? Just over 2.3%, for No. 23. There are no coincidences.)

The reverberations from this one will be felt far and wide; let’s start getting our arms around it all.

What follows is a stab at a first draft of history — a thumbnail sketch of who and what seems to have been helped and hurt by Friday’s blockbuster announcement. We begin with the man himself:

WINNER: LeBron James

After spending most of the 16 months between the Luka Dončić trade and the end of the 2025-26 NBA season wrangling with the fact that the Los Angeles Lakers not only no longer revolved around him, but were prepared to move on from him come the end of his contract, James informed the world he wouldn’t be returning to L.A. and that he intended to continue his career elsewhere. (A “you can’t fire me because I quit” move? Perhaps!) He then proceeded to hold the attention of the basketball-watching world in the palm of his hand for weeks, sparking countless discussions about on-court fits and off-court narratives, about history and legacy …

… and, crucially, about just how good, valuable and important a player he still is, even with more than 1,900 NBA games and 73,000 minutes on his odometer.

He got a handful of teams to throw bouquets at his feet, to vie for his favor. He got a multi-year deal that could pay him millions through age 43, through his 25th season, an unthinkable career that now just keeps going. And he got to come back to the Eastern Conference he once dominated, to join a team with young talent that had already put itself on the upswing earlier this summer, and to give himself a puncher’s chance at a fifth ring — this time, with a fresh new angle on how to make even more history.

It is, as always, good to be the King.

WINNER: Philadelphia 76ers

Zoom out, and over the past three-plus weeks, the Sixers have turned Paul George (who played 78 regular-season games during his two seasons in Philly), two first-round picks and two second-round picks into Jaylen Brown and LeBron James. Pretty good!

Before the Brown trade, the Sixers looked like a team that might have a tough time improving significantly on last season’s 45-37 play-in finish. Dealing for the five-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA swingman seemed like a boost worth a couple of wins, one that could get Philly into the East’s top six and within hailing distance of home-court advantage in Round 1. Add in LeBron, and it’s easy to start talking yourself into 50-plus wins and a real shot at challenging the defending NBA champion New York Knicks for Eastern Conference supremacy.

Brown gives the Sixers the sort of dynamic perimeter slasher — more drives to the basket per game last season than anybody but Deni Avdija — and bruising, reliable high-level two-way big wing they haven’t had since Jimmy Butler’s brief stint in Pennsylvania. LeBron remains one of the NBA’s visionary passers and playmakers, capable of injecting pace, precision and a whole bunch of points into virtually any offensive setting.

Emilee Chinn via Getty Images

Both can sprint the floor and fill the lane in transition. Both can work either end of a pick-and-roll, hunting more lumbering bigs or mashing smaller defenders in the low post on switches. Both can contribute on or off the ball; both can command the offense in second units; both can lighten the load on All-NBA point guard Maxey, who led the NBA in minutes per game last season, and former MVP center Embiid, whose ability to remain upright and ambulatory remains the biggest question lording over the entire Philadelphia enterprise.

Adding James bumps free-agent signing Dean Wade from the starting lineup to the bench, improving Philly’s depth by bolstering a reserve corps that also features gunner Anfernee Simons, big men Ariel Hukporti, Adem Bona and Dominick Barlow, wings Justin Edwards and Jabari Walker, and 2026 first-round pick Labaron Philon Jr. That second unit might not look like a murderer’s row; the fact that Nurse will likely be able to keep at least two of Embiid, Maxey, James and Brown on the floor at all times, though, ought to make those reserves’ lives a hell of a lot easier from a shot-creation and floor-raising perspective.

Only 10 qualifying players averaged at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists per game last season. The Sixers just added two of them. They’re going to be better. Maybe a lot better.

WINNER: Joel Embiid, Playing the Long Game

What started in 2014 and continued in 2018 has now, finally, come together. It’s like they always say in Philly: Have faith in the system.

STILL THE MOST IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF THIS WHOLE SHEBANG: Joel Embiid’s Health

The big fella has played just 109 total regular-season and playoff games over the last three seasons. In that span, the Sixers have outscored opponents by 356 points in 3,604 minutes with him on the floor, and have been outscored by -729 in 9,206 minutes with him off it.

At the risk of oversimplifying things: When Embiid plays, the Sixers are good, and often very good, and when he doesn’t, they are not, and often extremely not. This has held true virtually regardless of which co-stars the Sixers have employed, which coach is calling plays from the sideline, and which front office is building the roster.

Yes, the arrivals of James and Brown to join Maxey and Edgecombe represent what looks like an excellent failsafe, particularly on the offensive end. But can Hukporti, Bona and (gasp) LeBron-at-the-5 give the Sixers enough on the glass and protecting the paint to keep the defense from falling off a cliff when Embiid’s not available, whether due to injury or just needing a breather? Can Embiid get his lower limbs sufficiently oiled up to be able to hold up in pick-and-roll coverage more effectively than he did during the second round, when the Knicks absolutely flame-broiled him in space? And, as always, the billion-dollar question: Can Embiid stay upright and productive into April, May and June?

If the answer to that question is the same as it’s been to this point in his career, then it’s hard to see the Sixers getting where they — and their extremely well-decorated newcomer — desperately want to go.

WINNER: That Domino Effect Meme

A very useful tool.

WINNER: The Sixers’ New Brass

Josh Harris hired Bob Myers, front-office face of the Golden State Warriors dynasty, to steer the ship for his basketball and football clubs. After moving on from Daryl Morey, Myers hires Mike Gansey out of Cleveland to be Philly’s new general manager. Less than two months later, they have Brown — whose arrival reportedly made the Sixers more attractive to the free-agent King — and LeBron.

Shouts to old Ohiohigh schoolbasketball connections. Shouts to working your way into the third chair on a podcast to make your pitch. Shouts to coming through in the clutch (or Klutch, as the case might be) when given the opportunity to do so.

WINNER: The Element of Surprise

If you didn’t see LeBron picking Philly coming, don’t sweat it. Neither, apparently, did the Sixers. From Tony Jones of The Athletic: 

The Sixers were surprised by LeBron James' decision, not learning of his choice to accept their offer until minutes before his statement was issued through his representation, according to a team source close to the process.

As surprises go, this one ain’t half bad. Speaking of which:

LOSER: Everybody Else Trying to Figure Out What to Get Nick Nurse for His Birthday

Sorry, y’all. Bob and Mike just got him LeBron. Your gift card to the local paint ‘n’ sip spot and authentic tablature book for Creed’s “My Own Prison” … well, they’re playing for second. (Still pretty thoughtful, though.)

WINNER: Breadcrumbs

The signs were there all along!

LOSER: Breadcrumbs

… OK, I guess not those ones.

LOSER: Cleveland Cavaliers

On one hand, after extending Donovan Mitchell earlier this month, and with James Harden likely to sign his own multi-year re-up any second now that the LeBron chase is done, the Cavs are in position to return eight of the top nine players from the team that just made the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since James left for L.A., and for the first time without James being on the roster since 1992. So it’s not exactly Factory of Sadness time at Rocket Arena.

On the other, though: The Cavs got, y’know, destroyed in the Eastern Conference finals, due in part to the fact that they got a grand total of 80 points in four games on 25-for-79 shooting (31.6%) from their wings: Wade (who since left for Philly), Max Strus, Sam Merrill and Jaylon Tyson.

LeBron represented the Cavs’ best chance for a dramatic improvement on the wing between the backcourt of Mitchell and Harden and the frontcourt of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Now, their best chance is … Jonathan Kuminga? DeMar DeRozan? A returning-from-Europe Mario Hezonja? Whoever you can get for a package of the expiring contracts of Strus and Dennis Schröder plus their one tradable first-round pick and two tradable seconds?

How much are any of those options raising the ceiling of a team that saw just how far they were away from the promised land against the Knicks, that has seen a handful of conference rivals work to level up in the offseason, and that has added only (admittedly exciting) rookie Meleek Thomas to a roster that, once Harden re-signs, will have virtually no financial flexibility for the next three seasons?

Next year’s Cavs might not be demonstrably worse than last year’s. It’s hard to see them being demonstrably better, though — and in an East that’s moving forward, standing still can start to feel like falling back pretty damn quick.

WINNER: Lovers of Competitive NBA Cup Group Stages

Feast your eyes on East Group B, you sick freaks:

The defending champs. The last team to beat them in the playoffs, who are getting their All-NBA point guard back. Two teams that said defending champs just knocked off in the playoffs, one of whom just added LeBron and the other of whom just lost out on LeBron. And another team that lost out on LeBron, but who also — ICYMI — traded for Giannis freakin’ Antetokounmpo. Get your point-differential-as-tiebreaker calculators ready!

LOSER: Golden State Warriors, and the Dream of One Last Ride

Nobody thought that LeBron teaming up with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Steve Kerr would guarantee the Warriors anything, necessarily. It did seem, though, like one last shot at wringing just a bit more magic out of what the head coach has famously called a “fading dynasty.”

With James heading east, the Warriors’ course of action will likely be to re-sign Green, either for one year at the $27.7 million he just declined to afford them the opportunity to chase LeBron or for multiple years at a lower average annual value, and then … mostly just sit tight?

Golden State has scarcely any money on the balance sheet beyond the end of next season. The contracts of Curry and the injured Jimmy Butler expire after this year — though you’d obviously imagine that Steph will get whatever extension he wants whenever he wants it. Kristaps Porziņģis and Al Horford hold player options for 2027-28, and Brandin Podziemski’s ticketed for restricted free agency after the season if he doesn’t come to terms on an extension of his rookie-scale deal before opening night. Right now, the only Warriors on the books after this season are Moses Moody, first-round pick Yaxel Lendeborg, Gui Santos and Will Richard — all of whom will be making less than 8% of the salary cap in ’27-’28.

All of that gives the Warriors plenty of flexibility in charting a new path forward — perhaps, even, beyond the end of Curry’s magical run in the Bay. That’s fine; it’s good to have options. But for a franchise and fanbase that became accustomed to annual runs deep into spring and early summer and to competing for championships, the idea of doing what’s sensible and prudent as you watch the light of your all-time superstar start to fade … well, it doesn’t make you a “winner,” I don’t think.