The Arch Manning hype machine is once again taking off. Will the man meet the monster expectations this time?
TAMPA, Fla. — If the rest of the world could be as normal about Arch Manning as he is, there never would have been Heisman Trophy expectations at the beginning last season or a bandwagon exodus of insane proportions when he looked like a typical first-year starting quarterback for nearly half the season.
Manning didn’t ask to be anointed as the biggest star in college football before proving anything on the field, but it defined everything about the reaction to Texas’ 2025 season. From the crush of publicity in August, to the doom-and-gloom that followed early losses, to the idea that Texas was wronged by the College Football Playoff committee after finishing with a flourish, every narrative turn felt emotionally overwrought.
Now, as Texas enters another season with a loaded roster and a Manning-led offense, one of two things will happen: Either we will learn that the expectations came one year too early or we are about to make the same mistake twice.
“I think last season he found out a lot about himself,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said Thursday at SEC media days. “Any time we’re faced with adversity and we get on the other side of it, you gain confidence. I think you see a different leader in him. The work ethic hasn’t changed, but I think the ability to lead vocally is much different than before and I think he’s very comfortable with who he is.”
With Manning returning for his second go-round as a starter, arguably the most dangerous (and expensive) wide receiver room in college football and a defense that All-American edge rusher Colin Simmons called “stacked,” Texas will enter the season right there with Georgia as favorites to win the SEC and among the small group of teams that could contend for the national title.
Those expectations feel legitimate. Some programs can boast about their continuity with returning players, while others derive hope from what they got out of the transfer portal. Texas is one of the very few that, at least on paper, can marry both.
But it really comes down to this: Is Manning going to be who everyone thought he was?
“The goal is to get more comfortable in the offense every day, and I think going through game experience last year has helped me,” Manning said. “We’re trying to get more comfortable every day going forward.”
Manning did not come to SEC media days with a bunch of spicy one-liners. He answered every question but mostly kept it brief and noncontroversial. If you were comparing it to a round of golf, he seemed determined to hit a lot of 3-irons off the tee.
In Manning’s world, however, steady and boring must seem like quite a relief from the circus that engulfed him last year as he was struggling and social media decided he was an overhyped bust.
“I tried to stay away from the media during it, but you know, I wasn’t playing very well,” he said. “People have opinions and they shared them, and that’s totally fine. But I think I learned a lot about myself and I’m trying to have a good year this year.”
Manning may have been able to block out some of the noise when Texas was 3-2 to start last season, but the level of scrutiny was almost unprecedented. College athletes rarely become lead debate topics on the ESPN morning shows, but Manning’s stardom reached such a level that any mention of him could drive ratings and Internet pageviews — especially when he was playing poorly.
With the amount of money college athletes make these days, you can argue it’s fair game. It was jarring to watch Manning unable to make basic plays against Ohio State one minute, then see him starring in Warby Parker commercials the next.
But at the same time, Manning’s résumé 12 months ago did not justify being a preseason Heisman favorite — or the crashout when he didn’t meet that standard right away. Take away his last name, and he would have simply been viewed as a very good recruit with minimal game experience in his first two seasons, playing behind a shaky offensive line, who was probably going to need some adjustment time as a starter.
“Arch Manning wasn’t going around posting on social media [that] ‘I’m going to be the first pick or I’m going to be the Heisman Trophy winner,’” Sarkisian said. “Quite frankly, he just worked really hard and tried to be the best player and teammate he could be. Then he doesn’t play great and we don’t play great and he takes, in my opinion, some real tough criticism and some would say disrespectful criticism. … because he didn’t live up to what they thought he was going to be.
“What he got put through probably would have destroyed 99 percent of people in his shoes.”
Manning wasn’t destroyed. In fact, he progressively got better at taking care of the football (just two interceptions over the last seven games), improved his accuracy on short and medium throws and had a much better feel for when to run, which was a key factor in wins over Texas A&M and Michigan to end the season.
By the end, the pendulum had swung all the way from “He’s a bust!” to “If he wanted to enter the draft, he might be QB1!” While both extremes were unfair, having the Manning name on the back of his jersey means the temperature will probably be a little hotter or colder than reality most of the time.
“There’s always going to be outside opinions of that guy, and that comes with the territory,” Sarkisian said. “He understands that. But I think he learned a lot about overcoming adversity and his teammates. I think right now he’s a very dangerous player because of what he learned from last season.”
A dangerous player, perhaps, but not one who has truly arrived yet. Yes, given the trajectory he was on at the end of 2025, Manning deserves to be thought of as one of the more promising quarterbacks in the country. There’s a lot to like.
But Manning still has not demonstrated that he’s an elite college player. There were a couple times at the end of last season when he looked like he was on the cusp, but there’s also a chance he struggles against Ohio State in Week 2 and we're right back in the same toxic place we were a year ago.
Ultimately, it's up to him whether the Heisman/No. 1 pick talk comes to fruition.
And it’s up to the rest of us not to overreact — positively or negatively — to every plot twist in his story.
