NFL offseason power rankings: No. 12 Kansas City Chiefs get to answer whether their dynasty is over
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During the New England Patriots' dynasty, there were numerous attempts to proclaim it dead. Sometimes in the middle of Super Bowl seasons.
Eventually the dynasty did end, but it took almost 20 years. Time and again, the attempts to kill off the Patriots were premature. That might be a valuable lesson for what's to come for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes took over as the Chiefs' starting quarterback in 2018 and before last season he had never been eliminated before overtime of the AFC championship game. The Chiefs were blown out in Super Bowl LIX by the Eagles two seasons ago and while that was surprising, it didn't seem like Kansas City was going anywhere. Then, last season, happened.
The Chiefs saw their historic good luck in close games completely leave them. They couldn't win a close game. By the time Mahomes tore his ACL, the Chiefs were 6-8. They lost their final three games to finish with an 11-loss season.
The Patriots never had a losing season during their dynasty. The Packers of the 1960s did not have a losing record with Vince Lombardi as head coach. The Steelers hit their stride in 1972 and didn't have another losing record for the rest of the decade. From 1981 to 1998 the only time the 49ers didn't win double-digit games was the weird 1982 strike-shortened season. When the Cowboys fell to 6-10 in 1997, that was pretty much the end of their dynasty.
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So the Chiefs trying to rebound from an 11-loss season and keep a dynasty going is practically unprecedented in the NFL. But are we willing to count out Andy Reid and Mahomes?
Mahomes tore his left ACL and LCL on Dec. 14, which made a tight window for him to be ready by Week 1. All signs in his recovery have been positive. However, the injury complicates a situation that was already getting murkier.
The Chiefs' core around Mahomes has been an issue for a few seasons, though he had overcome it before last season. His pass catchers either haven't worked out yet as hoped (Xavier Worthy), can't stay out of off-field trouble (Rashee Rice) or are at an age in which the cliff could be coming fast (Travis Kelce). The defense carried the team for a few seasons but even that unit slipped to 16th in DVOA last season. That defense saw three-fourths of last season's starting secondary depart, including elite cornerback Trent McDuffie in a trade with the Rams.
This could be a critical intersection in this Chiefs era. No matter what, seven straight conference title games, five Super Bowl appearances and three Super Bowl wins makes it a dynasty. Nobody is taking that away. But how history ultimately remembers the Chiefs, and Mahomes in particular, will continue to be shaped over the next few seasons. Tom Brady tore his ACL in the first game of the 2008 season, at age 31, in his ninth NFL season. Mahomes was 30 and in his ninth season when he tore his ACL. Brady went on to have a second act of his career that would have been Hall of Fame worthy even if the first part, which included three rings, never happened. We'll see if Mahomes can replicate that.
The Patriots still had a decade to go in their dynasty when Brady missed nearly an entire season. We just didn't know it at the time. One of the NFL's biggest storylines this season will be where the Chiefs stand in their dynasty, if the dynasty is still in progress at all.
Offseason grade
One of the more interesting moves of the offseason was the Chiefs signing Kenneth Walker III to a deal that, at $14.35 million per season, is the most for any free agent running back this offseason. That signals a desire to make defenses, which have made it a priority to take away the deep passing game from Patrick Mahomes, more honest. It also shows the Chiefs want to take pressure off Mahomes, who had to do it all last season. Walker was last season's Super Bowl MVP and should be the best running back Kansas City has had in many years.
There were personnel losses, particularly on defense. Kansas City traded cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams, who immediately made him the highest paid cornerback in NFL history. The Rams also signed Jaylen Watson, the Chiefs' other starting cornerback last season. The Chiefs hope rookie cornerback Mansoor Delane, the sixth overall pick of the draft, helps replace them. Kansas City clearly liked Delane because they traded up three spots to take him. The Chiefs had another first-round pick and used it on defensive tackle Peter Woods at No. 29 overall, a selection that came from the Rams in the McDuffie deal. The Chiefs also lost safety Bryan Cook and linebacker Leo Chenal in free agency, though they signed defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga and safety Alohi Gilman to offset some of the losses.
It was a lot of change for one offseason, though that might not be the worst thing if the rookie first-round picks come through.
Grade: C+
Quarterback report
It's impossible to deny that Patrick Mahomes' stats have dipped in recent seasons.
First to fifth seasons as starter: 4,791.4 yards, 38.4 touchdowns, 9.6 interceptions, 106 passer rating
Sixth to eighth seasons as starter: 3,899.3 yards, 25 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 92 rating
It's not like Mahomes' numbers the past three seasons are bad. He's still a great player, and anyone watching the games can see he's one of the best in the NFL. But teams adjusted to the Chiefs' offense at the same time the supporting cast started to deteriorate a bit. Mahomes' ACL injury adds another layer, and in particular it might limit his running this season. Last season, he scrambled to make anything happen on offense as he set career highs with 422 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns. That might dry up.
Nobody should be questioning Mahomes' greatness. But for the Chiefs to fully rebound this season, they might need something closer to the production he had earlier in his career.
Odds breakdown
From Yahoo's Ben Fawkes: "While Patrick Mahomes is pushing to come back Week 1 against Denver off his knee injury, it's yet to be seen how effective he'll be early on. Despite a win total of 10.5, the Chiefs are favored in only 11 games — the fewest of any season with Mahomes as a starter. Kansas City signed RB Kenneth Walker III from the Seahawks, but there are a lot of questions on this roster. Will Rashee Rice be available? How much does Travis Kelce have left? How good will a completely revamped secondary be? Kansas City spent its first four draft picks on defense, but it's a lot to ask rookies to contribute early. The Chiefs need to get out to a quick start, as they're favored in their first five games. Even going under last season, Kansas City has gone over its win total in 10 of the last 13 seasons."
Yahoo's fantasy take
From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "Rashee Rice carries an undeniable upside. He's averaged 64.2 yards per game since turning pro, has a 74.6% catch rate and 14 touchdowns in 28 games. But staying on the field has become a challenge, between various injuries and one league suspension. Rice's off-field baggage and recovery from knee surgery should be factored into his draft price, and we also need to consider that the Kansas City offense has not been high-powered for a couple of years. Those driven by upside will consider Rice in the second or third round, but his shaky floor has me afraid to commit."
Stat to remember
The weirdest stat in the NFL last season, outside of the Jets not getting one interception, might be the Chiefs' unbelievable turn of fortune in close games. In 2024, the Chiefs went 11-0 in games decided by seven points or less, counting playoffs, and 6-0 in games decided by three or less. They set an NFL record for consecutive wins in one-score games. Then, last season, their record was 1-9 in games decided by seven points or less and 1-6 when games were decided by three or less. While regression is a real thing, that big of a shift makes no logical sense.
"We have the guys and we've executed at certain points in games and looked really good, but we kinda crush ourselves with penalties and mistakes and interceptions and fumbles and whatever that is," Mahomes said after a last-minute loss to the Jaguars. "We've done that to ourselves all season long. It's been one guy here or there. In this league, it's so close that those change games."
If the Chiefs were .500 in one-score games in 2024, they'd have gone 10-7 in the regular season. If they were .500 in those games last season, they'd have gone 10-7. The difference between their 15-2 season and their 6-11 season might not be as great as perceived.
Burning question: Will Kenneth Walker III and the rest of the offense be an asset?
The Chiefs hadn't really invested much at running back in the Patrick Mahomes era, aside from a late first-round pick on Clyde Edwards-Helaire that didn't work out. The signing of Kenneth Walker III, last season's Super Bowl MVP, indicates a shift in philosophy. Walker's explosiveness is a positive, though he can take on some negative runs. Walker also has to show he can be a workhorse. Walker has had more than 20 carries in just nine of his 62 career games, including playoffs. Though one of those games was a 27-carry, 135-yard game in the Super Bowl.
Assuming Walker boosts the running game, others need to be reliable in the passing game. Rashee Rice is a good player but injuries and off-field problems are causing a headache. Rice spent 30 days in jail this offseason for violating his probation that stemmed from a 2024 car crash. He also had minor knee surgery this offseason. Xavier Worthy has had some good moments but also just 1,170 receiving yards in two seasons. Travis Kelce had 851 yards last season, which was great for his age, but there's not much of a track record of success from 37-year-old tight ends. Only three times has a 37-year-old tight end put up more than 400 yards in a season (Tony Gonzalez in 2013, Jason Witten in 2019 and Ben Watson in 2017). In addition, the Chiefs' offensive line is still not widely considered to be in the top half of the NFL.
The Chiefs can't afford to have Mahomes do everything as he comes off an ACL. They need some help to emerge.
Best-case scenario
Andy Reid is one of the greatest coaches ever. Patrick Mahomes is one of the greatest quarterbacks ever. That's a great place to start for any team. The Chiefs are two seasons removed from going 15-2 and winning the AFC. If defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can bring his new additions along fast and the offense finally supports Mahomes a little better, the Chiefs being one of the NFL's best teams is obviously possible. One bad season doesn't completely change who the Chiefs are. The best-case scenario is Mahomes looking like the same player he was before his knee surgery, the offense around him stepping up, the defense returning to its level from 2023-24, when it finished second and fourth in the NFL in points allowed, and a motivated Chiefs team loudly announcing that the dynasty is far from over.
Nightmare scenario
If Patrick Mahones plays in Week 1, it will be just 274 days since he tore his ACL. Just because a player is back on the field after a major injury, it doesn't mean he's back to 100%. It would be troubling to realize Mahomes rushed back too fast. Even if Mahomes is back, the Chiefs were 6-8 with him last season. The defense showed serious signs of decline and lost key players this offseason. And maybe Kenneth Walker III doesn't prove to be the major addition the Chiefs need on offense. While it seems silly to say the Chiefs will lose double-digit games, they were flirting with that last season before Mahomes' injury, and then they actually finished 6-11 with three ugly losses. So, apparently, double-digit losses actually is the nightmare, and possible. If that happens, we'd have our answer to whether the Chiefs' dynasty is over. Those who have turned on the Chiefs and root for their downfall won't like hearing it, but another Super Bowl title is within their range of outcomes.
The crystal ball says
Putting the Chiefs at No. 12 is uncomfortable. They could be far better than that. Patrick Mahomes has never been more motivated, and that's a good reason to fear ranking Kansas City too low. But suddenly there are questions. There's no bankable player in the Chiefs' offense aside from Mahomes. KC's defense has to be much better and is relying on rookies to fill key roles. Mahomes' injury has become a non-story through the offseason but maybe it will be an ongoing issue. While it's scary, we're not picking the Chiefs to win the AFC West, though a return to the playoffs seems reasonable even if it won't result in another Super Bowl trip. And that type of season wouldn't get us much closer to an answer about whether the dynasty is still alive.
