Fantasy Baseball Rest-of-Season Rankings: Scott Pianowski's updated risers and fallers as of July 20
Very early in the 2026 season, it appeared too late for the Red Sox. They fired manager Alex Cora after a month. Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony got hurt. The team was still shipwrecked in late June, sitting on a 32-46 record, 15.5 games out in the AL East. Boston had a seller’s vibe with the trade deadline looming.
Things appeared to flip on June 25, when the Yankees came to Fenway Park. Boston shockingly delivered a four-game sweep, and the Red Sox haven’t let up since. The Red Sox are now on an 18-2 barrage, including 13 victories in a row. The last four wins came this past week against the respected Rays.
Although the Red Sox have averaged five runs a game over this hot stretch, this team is mostly defined by pitching (and in the quiet background, defense). The Red Sox have the best bullpen ERA in baseball and the eighth-best starter’s ERA, surely helped by the best outfield defense in the world. Meanwhile, the offense is 23rd in runs, 21st in OPS.
Winning and losing streaks generally come and go in baseball, and you can shrug off almost anything that happens for a week or so. But when a steak gets to 13 in a row, and 18 out of 20, the rules of signature significance likely apply. A bad team is unlikely to win 13 games in a row. Boston still has an uphill climb to be taken seriously as a World Series contender, but this certainly looks like a playoff team. Decision-maker Craig Breslow is likely a buyer for the Aug. 3 trade deadline, if he can actually find some teams looking to sell.
I have no idea if the Red Sox will get anything from Crochet and Anthony this year. Put Trevor Story in that bucket, too. But at least they’re interesting again, and that’s all you can ask for.
With the Boston backdrop in our minds, let’s look at some of the risers and fallers on the moving forward Fantasy Baseball ranks.
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Caleb Durbin, 2B/3B, Red Sox: Durbin’s seasonal arc resembles that of the team. A key part of the Kyle Harrison trade, Durbin got off to a horrible start and was sitting on a .183/.250/.280 slash at the end of May. It’s miraculous that the Red Sox stuck with him at all.
All Durbin’s done since then is mash — .299/.358/.526, with eight homers and seven steals. He’s only struck out 18 times in 152 plate appearances. Some timely mechanical adjustments have taken hold, and they’ve turned Durbin into a five-category fantasy contributor. And imagine what’s possible when he gets more comfortable at Fenway Park — his OPS is still 113 points lower in home games.
Sonny Gray, SP, Red Sox: I was skeptical when the Red Sox traded for the veteran, on the eve of his age-36 season. But Gray’s tank has been more full than expected. He’s bagged 10 wins in his last 13 starts, and he hasn’t lost a game since mid-April. His 2.48 ERA stands as a career best.
There’s some cold water to the story, of course. That 2.48 ERA belies a 3.65 FIP, and his strikeout and walk numbers are moving in the wrong direction. I can’t move him past the SP3 bucket moving forward. Nonetheless, he’s still a set-and-forget arm, and we don’t have that many of those.
Ceddanne Rafaela, OF, Red Sox: He’s Boston’s current WAR leader, albeit most of that number is driven by his angelic defense. Category juice drives his fantasy value, and although he’s never going to walk much, he does make excellent contact and he’s centering the ball up more often. The Savant numbers don’t buy his current slash line, but between the power/speed combo and the promotion in the batting order (he’s now in the No. 2 slot), Rafaela is a very safe commodity to bank on for the second half.
Keider Montero, SP/RP, Tigers: It’s an old school success story, a control master surviving despite a pedestrian strikeout rate. Montero has looked so dominant in relief recently (working more than an inning in five straight appearances, even bagging a save), I wouldn’t have blamed the Tigers if they kept him in that fireman role. But Montero reentering the rotation this week (he’ll start against the Cubs) also makes sense.
Montero hasn’t walked two batters since the middle of May. If nothing else, you can watch him with a calm stomach.
Jake McCarthy, OF, Rockies: To be fair, it’s a story about two Jakes — he’s slashing 152 points higher doing the Misty Mountain Hop. But a .285/.342/.438 slash on the road makes McCarthy playable no matter the flow of the schedule, and of course his speed translates everywhere.
Manny Machado, 3B, Padres: The power has held up all year but other things are coming along — he’s batting .274 for the last month, with 18 walks against 20 strikeouts. Welcome to the party, pal. The bat speed is no longer elite, but at least it’s well over league average. We’ve stopped dreaming of an ADP par, but at least we can take Machado off the lineup-decision list.
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Ian Happ, OF, Cubs: In a lot of ways he’s a modern player — lots of strikeouts, a fair amount of walks, a bushel of homers. But he’s also hitting a career-worst .217 and the steals have dried up. The Cubs are never going to bench Happ, given his excellent defense and lineup flexibility (he’s a switch hitter). But I wouldn’t blame any fantasy manager who concluded, Driver Eight, take a break. Let’s be careful next draft season, when Happ enters his age-32 campaign.
Cal Raleigh, C, Mariners: I thought the injured list stint might be good for him, not just to heal up physically but to take a breath mentally. But Raleigh’s offense has been just as messy since he returned — .165/.306/.264, with just two homers in 27 games. Apparently that magical 2025 season is forever locked in the fluke file, land of Brady Andersons and Luis Gonzalezes.
Hunter Brown, SP, Astros: He missed 10 weeks with a shoulder injury, and it’s been rocky since the return six turns ago: 5.22 ERA (6.20 FIP), 22 walks against 26 strikeouts. The velocity is down a couple of ticks. It’s not fun to play fantasy sports like an actuary, but so often it’s correct. Brown’s locked onto my mixed-league benches until I see some positive momentum.
Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox: Okay, you can’t win them all. Duran was already having a nightmare season when Boston’s script flipped, but he’s been shockingly worse even during this winning stretch. Check Duran’s last three weeks: .148/.236/.213. with 20 strikeouts in 61 at-bats. He’s sitting in a platoon for the moment and probably would benefit from a change of scenery, albeit the Red Sox would surely be selling low.
